Gas prices in the United States hit a dubious milestone this week, as for the first time in at least a quarter-century, the national average has stayed above $4 a gallon this deep into the year.
The average price of a gallon of regular sat at $4.03 on Wednesday, according to AAA. While on its own, the figure is unremarkable, dropping from $4.08 a week ago and only modestly above the $3.87 recorded a month earlier. But experts noted that it stands out because of the calendar.
GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan said his firm’s data, going back to 2000, has never shown the national average above $4 this late in the year. Previous price shocks that drove pumps even higher had always eased by mid-August, including in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, rocketing U.S. gas prices to a near-all-time high of $5 a gallon. Even then, they fell back below $4 by Aug. 12.
Not this time, however. Prices have stayed stubbornly elevated amid Trump’s war in Iran. They first blew past $3 and then $4 after war broke out at the end of February, and have bounced around ever since as the conflict and talk of a resolution have waxed and waned. Analysts have warned the political fallout could be steep.
Experts were quick to weigh in on the grim record Wednesday.
Market analyst Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, said his own numbers backed up the milestone.
“I use the AAA data back to 2004 and get exactly the same thing,” Bianco wrote on X, noting that since 2004 only two years had seen higher gas prices after March 17: 2022, “the year of 9% inflation,” and 2008, “the year of the all-time high in WTI prices ($147 in July 2008).”
He warned the pain could deepen if the war grinds on.
“If the war is not resolved, 2026 prices … will probably trend sideways for the rest of the year and ‘separate’ at a much higher level into the fall/winter,” Bianco added. “My guess is drivers will notice.”
University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato flagged the danger in one word: “SIREN.”
Former Republican Rep. Joe Walsh, a vocal Trump critic, amplified De Haan’s data with an endorsement: “This.”
And French author William Reymond took a sarcastic shot at the administration’s “Golden Age” branding, jabbing: “Le Golden Age !!!”