The world is celebrating a possible breakthrough for Gaza, but the details still hinge on Israel’s decisions. Hamas agreed last week to total disarmament in exchange for Israel’s withdrawal from the occupied territory and a technocratic committee governing Gaza with the protection of an international force. The agreement can hold only if compliance on both sides is independently verified and a political road map is in place — not just promises.
The Hamas movement, headed by a newly elected leader, Khalil al Hayya, agreed July 31 to the 15-point road map presented by the U.S.-created Board of Peace for implementing the next phases of the Trump administration’s Gaza peace initiative.
But before anyone can start celebrating, Israel must also agree — and make good on its agreements.
To be precise, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been hesitant in reacting to the plan. His political future and legacy may depend on the general election coming Oct. 27, and silence in the meantime could be his best strategy to avoid political repercussions for responding. Yet Israeli forces attacking Gaza on Sunday, just after the peace deal was announced, spoke louder than any politician, triggering an angry response from the negotiator for the Board of Peace.
“Two days of strikes across Gaza have killed civilians and destroyed medical supplies,” the negotiator, Nickolay Mladenov, wrote on X. The BBC reported that at least 13 people, including several children, had been killed in the latest strikes on Gaza since Hamas’ agreement to disarm.
Israel claims it is reluctant to withdraw occupying forces because it doesn’t trust Hamas. Palestinians counter that recent history shows Israel is the untrustworthy party. Since the current ceasefire went into effect, not a single bullet has been shot by any Palestinian in Gaza, while Israel has continued to wreak havoc. That continues a clear pattern: Doctors Without Borders reported that 1,185 Palestinians have been killed and 3,816 injured since the Sharm el-Sheikh ceasefire was announced Oct. 10. This is roughly one Palestinian killed or injured every hour and 20 minutes, for nine months. As of June 19, more than 265 children have been killed, according to UNICEF.
The broader lesson from conflicts around the world is that ceasefires endure only when they can be observed and checked. Allowing a third party to monitor a ceasefire is one way to reduce violations and disputes.
Under the terms of the deal, the technocratic committee, whose Palestinian membership Israel approved, has yet to be allowed to enter Gaza. The terms of the latest plan, modeled on the 1998 Good Friday decommissioning of IRA weapons in Northern Ireland, call for all heavy Hamas weapons to be placed in locked warehouses in Gaza whose keys will be in the hands of Palestinians. The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, led by General Commissioner Ali Abdul Hamid Shaath, is expected to govern Gaza with assistance from an international force and control these warehouses. However, the entry of this 5,000-member force needs to be approved by the Israeli prime minister and defense minister.
Another critical issue history has taught us is that a ceasefire needs more than neutral external observers: A political path must also be laid out. Item 19 in the Trump administration’s 20-point plan, in what became a binding UN Security Council resolution, calls for a political process that leads “to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”
Since the U.S.-sponsored ceasefire was declared, Israel has also unilaterally expanded its control of Gaza from 53% in October to more than 60% now. Although the expansion violates the ceasefire deal, Washington and the U.S.-backed Board of Peace overseeing the deal’s implementation have seemingly let it slide as negotiators sought to persuade Hamas to accept the disarmament proposal first.
Hamas has said it will begin to carry out its part of the disarmament deal once Israel withdraws from those areas it reoccupied in Gaza after the ceasefire.
Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is awaiting decisions on four charges in a criminal corruption court and the possibility of an official investigative committee into the events leading up to and on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel. The Oct. 27 general elections will determine whether Netanyahu can again cobble together 61 mandates to form a majority in the 120-member Knesset. If his opponents fail, he would stay as acting prime minister until new elections can take place.
The ball is clearly now in the Israeli court as the Palestinian side has reluctantly agreed to yet another change of the agreed-upon deals. What will Washington do if Netanyahu refuses or attempts to suggest a counterproposal that includes yet another change of the goalposts? His proposals are often aimed at the other side, which refuses them. This allows Israel to claim that it is not an obstacle to peace. Will the Israeli leader again get away without accountability? Can any peace deal move forward while he remains in power?
Daoud Kuttab is a Palestinian journalist and a former professor of journalism at Princeton University. X: @daoudkuttab