Not so fast, experts say.
Even after oil starts flowing again from the Middle East, it could take time for consumers to see a difference at local fuel stations, supermarkets and other shops, according to economists and industry analysts.
Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted not only supplies of crude oil and refined fuel but also supply chains for fertiliser, food and even footwear. Businesses expect higher costs to persist, meaning consumers may need to prepare for that as well.
“It is not clear, despite three months of war, that anything has been achieved that makes the American consumer better off,” Brett House, an economist who teaches at Columbia Business School, said. “In fact, by almost any measure, not just the American consumer but the world is worse off as a result of this attack.”
If the deal between the US and Iran holds, here is how experts expect the effects of the war to recede — or not — in the weeks ahead.
Following news of the tentative agreement, oil prices fell on Monday to about $80 a barrel for benchmark US crude. That compares with $67 a barrel before the war and more than $120 a barrel reached earlier in the conflict.
Refineries typically pay for crude oil a month or more in advance, so even after oil prices drop, they won’t immediately be processing cheaper products.
“The tendency of petrol prices to fall slowly is partly because the raw material takes weeks to work through the system before it reaches consumers,” said Michael Lynch, a distinguished fellow at the non-partisan Energy Policy Research Foundation.
In places without sufficient refining capacity to meet demand, such as the US West Coast, gas prices will take longer to drop, said Mark Barteau, a professor of chemical engineering and chemistry at Texas A&M University.
In some Asian and African countries that rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil, the supply shock led to school and government office closures and work-from-home directives, according to the International Energy Agency.
“The bottom line is that getting back to ‘normal’ will be a lengthy process involving many parties and countries,” Barteau said. “Getting an agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the strait is only the beginning.”
Industry experts have spent months warning that even if the war ended, travellers should not expect airfares to fall immediately.
Airlines typically buy fuel in advance, adjust schedules gradually and price tickets largely based on demand, meaning lower oil and jet fuel prices may take weeks or months to affect commercial flight costs.
“I think it is unlikely that we are going to see a reduction in the cost of flying at any point this summer,” House said.
Fuel surcharges introduced by some airlines outside the US are among the first areas where passengers could see relief, said Gordon Ho, a professor at the University of Southern California’s business school.
“Consumers are going to say, ‘Wait a minute, why are you still charging me a fuel surcharge?'” Ho said.
Reopening the strait is unlikely to provide immediate relief at the supermarket, according to David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University.
Fuel accounts for roughly 15% to 30% of the total cost of food, according to the Independent Grocers Alliance, a group representing 7,500 supermarkets worldwide.
However, it can take months for an energy shock such as the one caused by the Iran war to work its way through the food supply chain and push grocery prices higher. Once prices rise, they tend to take a long time to come down, particularly when uncertainty remains, Ortega said.
“We are likely still looking at inflationary pressure on food in the coming months,” Ortega said. “There is still considerable uncertainty over how the reopening will unfold, and it will take time for fuel, diesel and retail fertiliser prices to come down.”
Rabobank, based in the Netherlands, said war-related food inflation in Europe is expected to peak sometime next year. In the US, grocery prices are projected to rise 3.2% this year, compared with a historical average of 2.6%, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would also be a welcome change for farmers and the production of food globally. Roughly 30% of the world’s fertiliser passed through the waterway before the war began.
Prices surged after supplies were effectively cut off, and shipments are likely to take time to return to pre-war levels.
The consequences of the current fertiliser shortage may only intensify over time.
Many farmers around the world are going through planting seasons without the fertilizer they need or paying sky-high prices for both fertiliser and fuel needed to produce and transport their products. The World Food Program of the United Nations expects this to have a “devastating impact” on crop yields — and consequently, food prices and the availability of food — for months to come.
US retailers selling shoes welcomed falling petrol prices in the hope that consumers would have more money available for back-to-school shopping, said Andy Polk, senior vice-president of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America.
However, footwear companies expect their own costs to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Members of the trade group maintain inventories of finished products lasting two to three months, but future orders could include higher charges for raw materials, Polk said.
Most footwear sold in the US is imported, and Polk expects shipping costs to remain elevated throughout 2026 and 2027.
US tariffs imposed last year have made it more difficult for footwear retailers to absorb higher costs or pass them on to customers. In May, footwear prices were 5.2% higher than in the same month a year earlier, according to government data.
Judah Levine, head of research at the freight booking platform Freightos, said the Straight of Hormuz closure has affected about 2% to 3 % of the total volume of container ships that are used for global shipping, but higher oil prices and disruption have impacted the shipping industry more broadly.
Josh Steinitz, chief strategy officer of the business logistics platform ShipStation Global, said consumers might notice higher shipping costs and more out-of-stock items online until the end of the year.
“I think fuel surcharges, which feed into shipping costs and are then passed on to consumers, will remain with us for quite some time across many major carriers,” Steinitz said.