Oil & Gas
GLOBAL primary energy demand is projected to increase by 23 per cent between 2025 and 2050, driven largely by population growth, urbanisation and economic expansion across developing regions, according to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The projection is contained in the World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2026, OPEC’s flagship publication that assesses long-term trends in the global energy landscape.
According to the report, global primary energy demand is expected to rise from about 312 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2025 to nearly 383 mboe/d by 2050, representing average annual growth of 0.8 per cent.
OPEC noted that almost all the growth in energy demand over the period would come from developing economies, particularly India, other Asian countries, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
The report indicated that energy demand in most developed economies would remain broadly flat or decline as a result of slower population growth, energy efficiency improvements and changing consumption patterns.
While renewable energy is projected to record the fastest growth among all energy sources, OPEC maintained that oil and natural gas would continue to play a central role in meeting the world’s expanding energy needs.
Demand for renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, biomass, hydropower and others, is expected to increase by a combined 51.3 mboe/d by 2050.
Solar and wind energy are forecast to account for the bulk of this growth, supported by falling technology costs and policy incentives aimed at accelerating energy transition efforts worldwide.
However, OPEC cautioned that challenges related to grid infrastructure, storage capacity and rising integration costs could affect the pace of renewable energy deployment.
The report further projected that global oil demand would increase by 18.6 mboe/d over the outlook period, while natural gas demand would rise by 19.3 mboe/d, reflecting continued global reliance on reliable and affordable energy supplies.
Nuclear energy is also expected to witness a significant revival, with demand rising by 10.5 mboe/d by 2050 after years of relatively slow growth.
In contrast, coal demand is forecast to decline by 29.3 mboe/d, largely due to climate policies, environmental concerns and its gradual replacement by cleaner energy sources, particularly in electricity generation.
According to the outlook, oil will remain the single largest contributor to the global energy mix throughout the forecast period, accounting for just under 30 per cent of total energy consumption by 2050.
The combined share of oil and natural gas is expected to stand at approximately 54 per cent by the end of the period, underscoring the continued importance of hydrocarbons in the global energy system.
Meanwhile, renewables are projected to increase their share of the global energy mix from around 15 per cent in 2025 to approximately 26 per cent by 2050.
The report also highlighted a major expansion in global electricity demand, with total electricity generation expected to rise from around 32,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 to approximately 59,500 TWh in 2050.
This growth, according to OPEC, will be driven by increasing electricity consumption across residential and commercial sectors, industrial activities, transportation systems and rapidly expanding data centre operations.
Developing countries are expected to account for roughly 75 per cent of the increase in electricity generation, with developing economies in Asia alone contributing nearly 60 per cent of the additional demand.
Wind and solar power are forecast to dominate future electricity generation growth, expanding from approximately 5,400 TWh in 2025 to about 26,000 TWh by 2050.
OPEC emphasised that achieving future energy security would require balanced investment across all energy sources and technologies, stressing that global energy demand growth, particularly in developing economies, necessitates an inclusive and pragmatic approach to energy transition.
The organisation reiterated that ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable and sustainable energy remains a critical objective as the world navigates evolving economic, demographic and technological trends.
F.O
Tags: Oil to remain dominant OPEC Forecasts