There is a palpable sense of fear that, beyond the security challenges that had long plagued Southern Kaduna—though now significantly reduced due to the determined and strategic efforts of Governor Uba Sani—the forthcoming primaries of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the nomination of candidates for the Senate, House of Representatives, and the State House of Assembly will introduce political violence that would further compound the security situation. Many analysts and men of goodwill are genuinely concerned that the political contest, if not carefully managed, will inflame existing divisions and potentially undermine the fragile peace that has recently begun to take hold in the region.
The attack last week on Tanko Rossi, Director of Contact and Mobilization for the Senator Sunday Marshall Katung Campaign Organization, by yet-to-be-identified assailants, coupled with the increasingly vitriolic exchanges on new media platforms by supporters of the incumbent Senator Katung and those loyal to Senator Danjuma Laah—whom he defeated in the 2023 primaries—has only served to confirm the worst fears of political observers. These troubling developments suggest a dangerous escalation in political tensions, raising serious concerns about the potential for violence if urgent steps are not taken to call the aspirants to order.
Clearly, unless the key contenders act swiftly and decisively to rein in their supporters, promote restraint, and emphasize peaceful engagement, the fragile stability in Southern Kaduna risks being severely undermined, with the possibility of the opening of another front that will further compound the instability in the region.
The last thing Southern Kaduna needs at this delicate moment is a descent into political violence. The fragile calm that communities are beginning to enjoy could easily be disrupted by politically motivated unrest, reversing hard-won gains and plunging the area into another form of instability. At a time when healing, reconstruction, and trust-building should take priority, any form of electoral conflict driven by inflammatory political conduct would not only be ill-timed but deeply detrimental to the region’s path toward lasting peace and development.
Governor Uba Sani, who has invested considerable effort and time in tackling the security challenges facing the area and has also delivered impactful development projects across the region, must and should understandably be concerned about the implications of what is fast becoming a warlike contest for the APC tickets. The political rivalry not only threatens to undo the progress achieved so far but also casts a shadow over the stability of the area. Traditional rulers, community elders, the general populace, and indeed friends of the region should equally be alarmed, given the consequences for peace, social cohesion, and the broader image of the state. There is no doubt that political violence would severely damage the hard-earned reputation of the region in several respects.
Another compelling reason why Southern Kaduna must urgently put its house in order lies in the relatively high level of education of its people. This raises a troubling question: why has a people widely regarded as being highly educated constantly found it difficult to manage their political affairs compared to other zones often described as less educated? Those areas have shown that what they may be lacking in formal education has been compensated for by stronger political discipline and the stabilizing influence of the traditional institutions that command respect. Unfortunately, the absence of similar cohesion in Southern Kaduna appears to be contributing to the escalation of the tensions. When compared to Zone One, where the selection of aspirants has been handled with notable ease and minimal friction, the contrast is stark. Even in Zone Two—where former Senator Shehu Sani and Yusuf Zilani, the former Speaker of the Kaduna State House of Assembly, are locked in a fierce contest for the senatorial ticket—there have been no reports of violence, despite the intensity of political rivalry.
The lingering conflict between Senator Sunday Marshall Katung and Senator Danjuma Laah—who notably broke the jinx by becoming the first to win the seat back-to-back—appears to be rooted less in ideology and more in ego and lingering vendetta. Clearly, the idea of “consensus” is increasingly unrealistic under the present conditions. And the argument being advanced that the stakes are unusually high because virtually every political heavyweight has defected to the APC, leaving “no other viable platform” for the contenders to pursue their ambitions, does not hold up under scrutiny.
From 1999 until very recently, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) politically dominated the region, and virtually all prominent Southern Kaduna figures—Senator Isaiah Balat, Col. Yohanna Madaki, Dr. Harrison Bungwon, Engr. Stephen Shekeri, Sir Patrick Yakowa, Nenadi Usman, Senator Haruna Aziz, among others—operated within the same political space. The key difference, however, was their level of organization and willingness to function as a team. Despite their disagreements, they were able to close ranks, negotiate, and agree on the sharing of positions in a manner that preserved unity. In contrast, it is difficult to envision Katung and Laah setting aside their differences to engage in meaningful dialogue, a reality that continues to deepen divisions in the region.
Going by the clarification by the APC National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, that a “consensus ticket requires the consent of all aspirants” to be valid, it is safe to conclude that the option of consensus between Katung and Laah is effectively unrealistic. The principal contenders are so deeply opposed to one another that the likelihood of mutual agreement is virtually nonexistent; indeed, each appears more inclined to be defeated than to step down in favor of the other. In such a charged atmosphere, the adoption of direct primaries may only intensify the crisis rather than resolve it.
The deeper concern, however, lies not only in the conduct of the primaries but the fear of post-primary reconciliation. Experience has shown that in contests of this nature, the aftermath can be just as contentious as the primary process itself, with the defeated camps often withholding support for the candidate that emerges. This pattern was evident in the 2023 elections, and there is every indication that, if the various primaries are not carefully managed, history could repeat itself with even more damaging consequences.
Amid this increasingly senseless and self-defeating rivalry, it is crucial for the various aspirants to recognize a simple but unavoidable political reality: victory at the primaries is only the first step, and not the final destination. Whoever eventually secures the ticket will still depend heavily on the goodwill, structure, and voter base of his opponent(s) to prevail in the 2027 general elections. Alienating rivals and their supporters may deliver a short-term win, but it risks creating deep fractures that could prove costly at the polls. In the end, no candidate can succeed in isolation; unity, reconciliation, and strategic collaboration remain indispensable for electoral victory.
The assumption that other parties pose no real threat is not only complacent but outright delusional. In 2023, Labour Party candidates such as Hon. Donatus Mathew, who won the Kaura Federal Constituency seat, and the late Hon. Ekene Abubakar Adams, who triumphed in the Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency, defeated more established politicians—in fact, were ranking members—from the then-dominant PDP in what many had considered safe strongholds. Those outcomes should serve as a cautionary tale: political structures offer no guarantees in the face of voter dissatisfaction and internal divisions. If the present aspirants persist in their acrimony and fail to unite, they risk suffering similar political upsets at the hands of a determined and opportunistic opposition.
There is no doubt that Senator Sunday Marshall Katung has recorded more visible success than Senator Danjuma Laah in terms of attracting federal presence to Southern Kaduna, particularly the establishment of the Federal University in Kachia and the Federal Medical Centre in Kafanchan. He has also maintained a more productive working relationship with Governor Uba Sani than Laah had with former Governor Nasir El-Rufai. However, despite these achievements, many people in Southern Kaduna still hold Laah in high regard for his perceived courage in standing up for the interests of the area during the height of the security crisis, when tensions were at their peak.
That said, this is where the comparison ends. Politics, being deeply emotional and influenced more by perception than performance, continues to shape loyalties and voting in complex ways. Laah retains strong grassroots support and is widely considered more accessible and closer to the people, which enhances his appeal among ordinary constituents. In contrast, Katung, despite his achievements, is often viewed by his critics as less approachable, with perceptions of arrogance trailing his public image.
These contrasting perceptions will play a decisive role in determining who eventually secures the ticket—but more importantly, whether Southern Kaduna chooses unity over another cycle of political self-destruction.
The APC’s internal conflict-resolution mechanisms must, moving forward, be set in motion to manage what is essentially an elite rivalry and to prevent escalation to the grassroots. By failing to mediate disputes early or impose binding reconciliation frameworks after primaries, the party risks allowing personal ambitions to affect its fortunes.
The law enforcement agencies must equally investigate the attack and read the riot act to the politicians.
Going forward, if the Southern Kaduna Senatorial Zone fails to manage its political affairs and to restore order among its key stakeholders, it risks inviting the direct intervention of the state APC leadership, particularly Governor Uba Sani. When that happens there should be no protests of interference by the other zones. It is therefore in the best interest of all actors involved to exercise restraint, embrace dialogue, and resolve their differences before the situation escalates to a point where external arbitration becomes inevitable.
Postscript: Senator Katung and Senator Laah would do well to watch their political backs closely. Wilson Iliya of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is steadily emerging as a serious contender, gaining traction in ways that should not be dismissed. If the current wave of internal division within their camp continues unchecked, it could create the very opening an opposition figure like Iliya needs to consolidate support and mount a credible challenge.
Ado writes from Kaduna, Kaduna state