President Bola Tinubu has unveiled another ambitious set of economic and development promises ahead of the 2027 presidential election, renewing questions about the implementation of commitments made when he first sought Nigerians’ mandate in 2023.
The new All Progressives Congress (APC) manifesto, presented in Abuja on Tuesday by the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, promises a $1 trillion economy by 2030, annual economic growth of six per cent, electricity generation exceeding 10,000 megawatts and one million export-linked jobs.
But the targets bear a striking resemblance to the aspirations outlined in Tinubu’s original Renewed Hope Agenda, which promised economic growth, improved electricity supply, job creation, food security, better infrastructure and a lower cost of living.
More than three years into his administration, several of those promises remain works in progress, with official economic figures and independent assessments suggesting that the benefits of the reforms have yet to translate into substantial improvements for many households.
On economic growth, the new manifesto targets six per cent annually. However, Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated growth at four per cent in 2025 and projected 4.1 per cent for 2026, below the new ambition.
The $1 trillion economy target is also still some distance away. The Federal Ministry of Finance puts Nigeria’s nominal GDP at approximately $291 billion in 2025, meaning the country must achieve substantial expansion over the next four years to meet the 2030 ambition.
READ ALSO; Nigeria’s debt service burden to hit 71.7% of revenue by 2030, DMO warns
Electricity supply presents another major test. While the administration now promises to scale available generation beyond 10,000MW, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission reported average available capacity of 5,038MW and average hourly generation of 4,089MW in September 2026. The figures underscore the distance between existing supply and the new target.
The cost-of-living crisis also remains a major concern. The IMF’s June 2026 assessment estimated that 63 per cent of Nigerians were living in poverty, while 27 million people faced food insecurity in the autumn of 2025. The Fund acknowledged that reforms had improved macroeconomic resilience but warned that living conditions remained difficult for many citizens.
The administration’s new promises include halving the number of out-of-school children by 2031, recruiting 20,000 additional teachers, extending health insurance coverage to 40 per cent of Nigerians, halving post-harvest losses and creating at least one anchor industrial cluster in each of the six geopolitical zones.
Unveiling the 109-page manifesto, Oduwole said the administration wanted to move Nigeria from economic reforms to shared prosperity, insisting that the next phase would translate policy changes into jobs, better incomes, reliable electricity and improved public services.
She said the document was developed after six weeks of consultations with ministers, lawmakers, state governments, development partners, business groups, civil society organisations and other stakeholders.
READ ALSO; Tinubu’s N50,000 cash transfer under scrutiny as TI alleges political motive
The manifesto is built around four pillars: a secure and resilient nation; improved quality of life and affordability; energy, infrastructure and economic growth; and effective and accountable governance.
Oduwole also highlighted what she described as achievements of the Tinubu administration, including an increase in health insurance coverage from 16.7 million to 23 million people, access to structured credit for more than 350,000 first-time borrowers and interventions supporting millions of schoolgirls.
However, the central political question is whether the administration can deliver the new commitments when several objectives in its original 2023 agenda remain unfinished.
Tinubu’s campaign is effectively asking Nigerians to trust a second-term promise of prosperity after a first-term period dominated by difficult economic adjustments. For voters, the ultimate measure will not be the number of targets contained in another manifesto, but whether electricity becomes more reliable, food becomes affordable, jobs become available and household incomes improve.
The 2027–2031 agenda may offer a fresh roadmap, but its credibility will depend on how convincingly the administration accounts for the promises it made before taking office in 2023.