As Nigeria marks 66 years of independence, the country enters another year of nationhood amid an economic transition shaped by sweeping reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Since taking office in 2023, Tinubu’s administration has removed petrol subsidies, liberalised the foreign-exchange market, tightened monetary policy, pursued tax and revenue reforms and accelerated infrastructure investment.
The reforms have produced measurable improvements in macroeconomic stability, but they have also imposed substantial costs on households and businesses.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its 2026 Article IV assessment that reforms since 2023 had strengthened macroeconomic stability, rebuilt external buffers and improved foreign-exchange market functioning. However, it noted that poverty and food insecurity remained serious concerns.
From subsidy shock to fiscal reset
The removal of petrol subsidy in May 2023 remains the defining moment of the administration’s economic reset.
The policy sharply increased fuel prices and, in turn, raised transportation, food, energy and production costs. Businesses also faced the impact of the naira’s depreciation following the move towards a more market-driven foreign-exchange regime.
The government has argued that the reforms were necessary to eliminate costly distortions and create fiscal space for development spending.
The 2026 budget, for instance, allocated N32.2 trillion to development expenditure, while infrastructure received N3.56 trillion.
The IMF similarly said the combination of subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalisation and tighter monetary policy had reduced fiscal vulnerabilities and strengthened Nigeria’s external position.
But economists have repeatedly stressed that macroeconomic stability must eventually translate into stronger productivity, jobs and household incomes.
Naira and reserves gain ground
The foreign-exchange market has provided another indication of the changing economic landscape.
The IMF reported that the naira appreciated by 10 per cent year-on-year against the dollar in March 2026, while gross international reserves rose to $46 billion at the end of 2025 from $40 billion a year earlier.
By mid-2026, the World Bank reported that reserves had reached $51.9 billion at the end of July, although it cautioned that reliance on short-term portfolio flows remained a vulnerability.
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The improvement in external buffers and foreign-exchange market functioning represents a significant change from the shortages and multiple exchange-rate regime that characterised the pre-reform period.
Yet currency stability alone does not automatically translate into cheaper goods, particularly where production, logistics, energy and financing costs remain elevated.
Growth returns, but welfare lags
Nigeria’s economy has also continued to expand. The National Bureau of Statistics reported real GDP growth of 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 3.89 per cent in the first quarter.
The World Bank, meanwhile, said inflation had eased markedly and economic growth remained robust, although household incomes had yet to fully recover and poverty remained high.
That gap between improving macroeconomic indicators and household experience remains one of the central issues surrounding the reform programme.
The IMF reported that poverty stood at 63 per cent under Nigeria’s national poverty line and estimated that 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in late 2025.
Capital market emerges as another reform indicator
The Nigerian Exchange has recorded a dramatic expansion during the reform period.
NGX data showed market capitalisation reaching N160.42 trillion in August 2026, compared with about N30 trillion in 2023.
The Presidency and NGX have linked the expansion to improved investor confidence and broader economic reforms. However, market capitalisation represents the value of listed securities and should not be confused with money directly accruing to households.
For the wider economy, the more important test is whether stronger capital markets translate into productive investment, business expansion and employment.
Infrastructure takes centre stage
The administration has also placed infrastructure at the heart of its economic strategy.
The Presidency said more than 2,700 kilometres of highways and major roads were under construction, reconstruction or rehabilitation as of May 2026, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road and East-West Road.
The government has also pursued reforms in the power sector, including a N3.3 trillion plan to settle verified legacy debts in the electricity value chain.
The objective is to lower the cost of moving goods and operating businesses while improving connectivity and energy supply.
The next test: turning stability into prosperity
At 66, Nigeria’s economic story has moved from acute distortions towards a framework centred on market pricing, fiscal reform, stronger reserves, infrastructure investment and private-sector participation.
But the transition remains incomplete.
The World Bank says macroeconomic stabilisation has yet to fully translate into improved household welfare, while the IMF has warned that poverty and food insecurity remain high despite the stronger macroeconomic position.
That leaves the central economic question for Nigeria’s 67th year: whether improved GDP growth, stronger external buffers, a more functional foreign-exchange market and increased investment can translate into what citizens experience most directly—more jobs, reliable electricity, affordable transport and food, productive industries, higher incomes and stronger purchasing power.
For the Tinubu administration, the next phase will therefore be measured not only by economic stability, but by how broadly Nigerians experience its benefits.