Global efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels are facing renewed scrutiny ahead of the 2026 United Nations climate conference, COP31, as governments continue to plan significant levels of oil, gas and coal production despite commitments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy.
The latest Production Gap Report shows that governments collectively plan to produce more than twice as much fossil fuel in 2030 as would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The report also found that planned production has increased in several areas compared with projections made in 2023.
The findings highlight a widening gap between international climate commitments and national fossil-fuel production policies as countries prepare for COP31.
At COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, nearly 200 countries adopted the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement and called for an accelerated transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, alongside a rapid expansion of renewable energy and improvements in energy efficiency.
The agreement was described by the UN climate agency as signalling the “beginning of the end” of the fossil-fuel era.
However, the subsequent trajectory of fossil-fuel production has raised concerns over whether governments are moving quickly enough to translate that commitment into concrete reductions in production and consumption.
The 2025 Production Gap Report, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, found that governments are planning higher levels of coal production through 2035 and gas production through 2050 than they projected in 2023. Planned oil production is also projected to continue increasing through 2050.
According to the report, government plans and projections would result in 2030 production levels around 500 per cent above the level consistent with a 1.5°C pathway for coal, 31 per cent higher for oil and 92 per cent higher for gas.
The report also found that governments’ planned fossil-fuel production in 2030 would exceed the levels implied by their own climate commitments.
Eleven of the 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries examined in the report have increased their near-term production plans for at least one fossil fuel compared with their previous projections.
The findings are likely to add pressure on governments heading into COP31, where negotiations are expected to focus on strengthening climate action, accelerating emissions reductions and increasing support for vulnerable countries.
COP31 President and Türkiye’s Climate Minister Murat Kurum said ahead of the conference that keeping global warming within the 1.5°C limit remained an urgent priority, warning against delays in climate action. At a pre-COP gathering in Fiji, Pacific island countries also pressed for stronger action on climate finance, ocean protection and emissions reductions.
For countries heavily dependent on fossil-fuel revenues, however, reducing production presents economic and political challenges. Oil and gas remain major sources of energy, government revenue and employment in many producer economies, while coal continues to play a significant role in electricity generation in several countries.
The Production Gap Report argues that the continued expansion of fossil-fuel production risks undermining efforts to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
The report says governments must reverse the expansion of fossil-fuel production and integrate planned reductions into broader energy-transition strategies. It also calls for international cooperation to ensure that countries and communities dependent on fossil fuels can make a just transition.
The challenge facing COP31 is therefore not simply whether countries will reaffirm their previous climate commitments, but whether those commitments will be reflected in decisions about energy investment, fossil-fuel production and infrastructure.
With global production plans still pointing toward substantial oil, gas and coal output, the climate talks will take place against a persistent contradiction: countries continue to endorse a transition away from fossil fuels while many of their production plans point in the opposite direction.