American intelligence agencies now assess that Vladimir Putin may try to directly test NATO within a few years, with scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to a limited land incursion. But the Russian president is already probing the alliance’s defenses and resolve. It’s well past time to respond.
A drone carrying explosives turned up near a runway at the Leipzig airport in Germany on Tuesday. A Russian missile flew 55 miles into Poland and detonated in a field last week.
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has been rattling its nuclear saber, and the din has been effective. President Joe Biden and his top advisers agonized over sending Kyiv the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), fearing that such a move might ignite World War III.
By October 2022, after intercepting Russian commanders discussing the use of tactical nuclear weapons, U.S. intelligence put the odds of nuclear escalation at as high as 50 percent. That led Biden to impose restrictions on donated weapons, limit their use against targets inside Russia and withhold targeting intelligence.
Ukraine’s resolve pulled the United States along. First came the limited-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). Long-range variants followed.
Western intelligence agencies now provide targeting information to Ukraine, which uses its own homegrown drones and missiles to strike deep inside Russia. There have been no mushroom clouds.
Russia obviously fears nuclear escalation with NATO, but it may not fear NATO itself.
A series of incidents preceded the missile in Poland and the drone in Germany, including foiled attacks on rail lines and swarms of drones flying deep into NATO airspace. Each incursion has a thin veneer of deniability but is almost certainly the Kremlin’s handiwork.
Given that these episodes keep occurring, diplomatic démarches are clearly not cutting it. But how does NATO respond unambiguously without climbing the escalation ladder? The right answer is to take the leash off Ukraine.
Visiting Washington last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked President Donald Trump to persuade Elon Musk to lift restrictions on using Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite communications system, to help guide strikes inside Russia. With the global supply of interceptors running dangerously low, Ukraine needs to be able to hit Russian launchers before they fire their ballistic missiles.
Trump reportedly told Zelensky he would talk to Musk and consider the request. Musk acquiesced to a previous Ukrainian request to block Russians from using Starlink over Ukrainian territory. Given the extent of SpaceX’s business with the U.S. government, an ask from the White House would not be dismissed lightly.
Russia has always probed its adversaries. Every “stray” drone or missile that goes unanswered encourages greater risk-taking. Doing nothing, paradoxically, is the more dangerous option.