Is Europe safer than America?

What is the truth? Comparing crime statistics across countries is notoriously tricky. Individuals’ propensity to report crime varies from place to place, and definitions rarely align neatly. Crime rates are also sensitive to population denominators: if a city includes a large hinterland (eg, Staten Island in New York) that can make other parts (eg, the Bronx) appear safer than they are.

A novel dataset curated by Matt Ashby, a criminologist at University College London, along with colleagues, attempts to overcome these problems. First, they selected 20 rich-world cities with a population of at least 2.5m, all of which publish annual crime statistics. Next, they adjusted boundaries so all had similar population densities (for example, Paris includes the whole Île-de-France region rather than just the city of Paris). Last, they harmonised definitions so categories of crime were broadly comparable to Britain’s. The findings are more nuanced than a keyboard warrior might expect.

Murder or, more precisely, homicide (which includes manslaughter) is an imperfect measure of street safety: you are most likely to be killed by someone you know. But it is the statistic that travels best across borders, since a dead body is a dead body. On this basis, Chicago is by far the most deadly city in the data. In 2024 it had 587 homicides, a rate of 22 per 100,000 residents, or 2.7 times that of the next-worst offender, Los Angeles. The average rate among ten European cities is 1.7 per 100,000 people.

There is less of a clear divide in other categories of crime, however. Personal robberies with a use of force happen about as often in both regions, even if London and Paris do especially badly with a rate of more than 300 per 100,000 people each year. Vehicle thefts are common in Chicago and Los Angeles, but New York does better than most European cities. Meanwhile, domestic burglaries are more common in Europe. On the one hand, a generous social-safety net in Europe may reduce the incentive for people to steal. On the other, America’s robust policing—and far higher incarceration rates—could help even things out.

Mr Ashby says the statistics are the “least-worst attempt” to make data comparable. He and his colleagues developed them so that policymakers could ask “detailed questions” about trends between countries. Reporting differences remain a big problem. Official figures for rape in England and Wales have doubled in the past ten years. But confidential surveys suggest cases have held steady: the increase appears to be due to more people telling the police and better crime reporting. Similarly, Mr Ashby says recorded business robberies in London may have risen because the police have made it easier to report such crimes.

Although comparisons across countries are hard, trends on both sides of the pond provide reasons for optimism. Murder rates in London and New York are lower than at any time since record-keeping began. Personal robbery in Paris may look high, but it has almost halved over the past decade. The broad trend is that cities in both Europe and America are safer, friendlier and more fun than a generation ago. That is something everyone should be able to celebrate.