President Donald Trump claimed last week that the United States has “the greatest economy we’ve ever had by far” and that he has “great poll numbers.”
Neither of those appear to be true, according to recent data. In fact, a struggling economy seems to be linked not only to Trump’s unpopularity but to his entire party’s standing.
“Voters are saying Trump and the GOP aren’t just focused on the wrong things,” Texas-based Democratic pollster Nancy Zdunkewicz said, “but they’re actively pointing the finger at them for higher costs now.”
Here’s what’s going on.
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Jobs and wages aren’t great right now
The labor market appears to be weakening, and stubborn inflation is eating into or even outpacing wage growth. That means there are fewer jobs overall, and for those who have them, their pay isn’t keeping up with higher costs.
Trump’s signature policies are playing a role in this. Economists say his tariffs, his war with Iran and mass deportations are all making it harder to keep prices down and grow hiring.
“The labor market has to fight a lot of headwinds to keep going,” Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a Philadelphia think tank that studies the labor market, told The Washington Post’s Lauren Kaori Gurley.
But the overall U.S. economy has been quite resilient. It’s avoided a recession that some economists predicted as the worst-case scenario from Trump’s tariffs and deportations. And a boom in investment in artificial intelligence and subsequent construction of data centers is driving record stock market growth.
“Things aren’t bad out here,” said Kathy Bernier, vice chair of the Chippewa County Republican Party in Wisconsin. “People are taking the higher gas prices in stride. It was over $5 a gallon here under Biden, and we’re under $4 now.”
Trump’s poll numbers are dismal
Voters have been pessimistic about the economy for a while, but as the war in Iran rekindled this summer, polls are really starting to turn against Trump and Republicans on the ballot in November.
Trump’s approval is stuck in the mid-30s, a Washington Post-Ipsos poll taken in July found. That’s near or close to his record low, and voters disapprove of most of his major policies. It’s certainly the most unpopular he’s been going into a midterm election.
Republicans, especially in competitive races, have been trying to run their own races focused on local issues, Republican strategists say. But that can be hard when affordability is the top issue, and gas and food prices stay high.
Registered voters prefer Democrats over Republicans in Congress by as much as five percentage points, according to a Post average of July polls that asked for voters’ preferences on which party should control Congress. That’s right in line with what Democrats need to win the House in November.
And for the first time in a decade, voters prefer Democrats over Republicans on whom they trust to lead the economy, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.
“Democrats are habitually behind Republicans on the economy, and the last three Democratic presidents presided over booming economic times, and they took over from a Republican who left with a recession,” Jim Kessler, vice president at the moderate Democratic think, tank Third Way, said in an interview last year.
“In Texas, voters are considerably more upset about the economy today compared to 2018,” Zdunkewicz said, referencing when Democrats won control of the House while Trump was in office. “And Republicans on the ballot here are now unwilling to tell voters they’re independent from Trump and to stand up to him on things that lead to higher prices.”
Trump is trying to convince voters to come out for Republicans
Trump is starting to tour the country to promote his tax breaks that went into effect in April for tips, overtime pay and auto loans, as well as deductions for seniors and $1,000 savings accounts for new babies.
The tax breaks come from Republicans’ tax-and-spending bill they passed last summer known as the One Big Beautiful Bill, which many voters say they don’t understand or are doubtful will help them.
The outlook for House Republicans would be more dire if not for the gerrymandering wars. Trump urged several states to redraw congressional districts to Republicans’ benefit. Democrats fought back but not quite as successfully. That could be enough to help Republicans stay in power for the last two years of Trump’s term.
If Republicans do lose in November, Trump also is starting to pin blame on the party he leads rather than on himself.
“At lot of them are very angry at Republicans, to be honest with you,” Trump told Punchbowl News, referring to how GOP voters feel going into the midterm elections. “They’re angry at Republicans, but they’re not angry at me.”
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.