Iran has also signalled progress, with officials saying Oman-mediated talks have been constructive and focused on ensuring the safe passage of commercial vessels through the strategic waterway.
Yet oil markets remain unconvinced. Brent crude has continued to hover around the $80-a-barrel mark, suggesting traders are waiting for more than encouraging political statements before betting on a sustained recovery in oil flows.
Here’s why.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter?
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil shipping chokepoint. Nearly one-fifth of global seaborne crude oil passes through the narrow waterway, making it a vital artery for energy supplies from the Gulf to Asia, Europe and beyond.
Any disruption to shipping through the strait can tighten global oil supplies, push up freight and insurance costs, and lift crude prices. That is why markets closely monitor not only diplomatic developments but also the actual movement of tankers through the region.
Oil flows remain well below normal
Despite the renewed diplomatic push, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to recover.
According to Muyu Xu, Senior Crude Oil Analyst at Kpler, oil flows fell sharply after an earlier understanding between the US and Iran collapsed.
“Ever since that MOU sort of collapsed, we did see oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz decline sharply,” Xu told CNBC-TV18.
She said only one or two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are currently crossing the strait each day. In volume terms, shipments have fallen to below 4 million barrels per day, almost half the roughly 8 million barrels per day recorded in late June and early July.
Those figures indicate that shipowners and traders are still reluctant to return to normal operations despite signs of diplomatic progress.
Why aren’t traders convinced by the talks?
For the market, diplomatic optimism alone is not enough.
While Trump, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have all suggested that a deal could be close, traders remain wary because previous breakthroughs have failed to deliver a lasting recovery in shipping.
Xu said the market views the latest negotiations as a temporary pause rather than a permanent resolution to tensions between Washington and Tehran.
“Right now, I think the market is taking it with a pinch of salt,” she said. “At best, this is another pause.”
Iran also continues to link shipping access to wider political issues, including future negotiations over its nuclear programme, making any agreement on maritime traffic potentially fragile.
Why does Iran still hold leverage?
Strategic Affairs Expert Anju Gupta believes recent military operations have not significantly weakened Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz.
She cited shipping data showing that vessel movements have steadily declined, from around 30 vessels on July 8 to 15 by July 15 and just eight by August 4.
According to Gupta, many ships have continued to favour Iranian waters even during the conflict, suggesting that Tehran still retains considerable influence over maritime traffic.
“It tells us that despite the blockade and despite the military campaign… Iran has continued to hold strategic leverage over Hormuz until now,” Gupta said.
She believes Washington has increasingly recognised that military action alone is unlikely to restore normal shipping, making diplomacy the more practical path forward.
Why do the Houthi attacks still matter?
Even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, exporters face another major bottleneck farther west.
The Yemen-based Houthi group has intensified attacks around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the gateway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The group claims to have targeted Saudi-linked shipping and forced dozens of vessels to divert, while also claiming responsibility for attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
Xu said the attacks have disrupted what had become an important alternative export route for Gulf producers.
“Shipowners are either waiting outside the Bab al-Mandeb Strait… or they’re taking the much longer route via Africa and the Mediterranean,” she said.
The diversion can nearly double voyage times and increase bunker fuel costs by as much as four times, driving up freight costs and putting additional pressure on global energy supply chains.
Would a dual-route shipping plan solve the problem?
One proposal under discussion is a dual-route arrangement under which inbound vessels would transit through Iranian-controlled waters while outbound traffic would use Omani waters.
Gupta believes the US could support such an arrangement as it seeks to restore oil and gas flows before shifting attention to negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
However, she questioned whether Tehran would accept the proposal.
“My bigger question is: will Iran agree to this?” Gupta said, adding that any arrangement would probably be linked to broader nuclear talks.
Why are investors still cautious?
For oil markets, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is only one part of the picture.
Shipping volumes remain well below normal, Houthi attacks continue to threaten alternative export routes, and the broader regional conflict has spread beyond the Gulf.
Gupta noted that tensions now extend beyond the Strait of Hormuz to Yemen, Jordan, Iraq and even parts of the Mediterranean, increasing uncertainty for global shipping and energy markets.
“I think it has already gone beyond that,” she said. “The conflict is expanding very rapidly.”
In short, traders are looking beyond political rhetoric. They want to see tanker traffic recover, freight and insurance costs ease, and security risks across the region decline before concluding that Gulf oil exports have returned to normal. Until those indicators improve, optimism from Washington alone is unlikely to convince oil markets that the crisis has truly passed.