As the United States’ war with Iran enters another lull following nearly two weeks of attacks from both sides that suspended the Islamabad MoU, Tehran remains “more sceptical than optimistic” about the pause.
An Iranian source told news agency Reuters that Tehran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States maintains its pause on strikes.
“Iran’s position remains ‘attack for attack’: if the attacks stop, Iran will also halt its operations. That message has already been conveyed to the United States,” the quoted source said.
The Iranian thinking comes to light a day after Washington halted attacks following 13 successive nights of air strikes.
“There is more scepticism than optimism about the halt in attacks. The prevailing view is that the pause is tactical rather than genuine,” the source added.
The pause, without any explanation or announcement, raised questions over US President Donald Trump’s next move. Iran’s army on Sunday said Tehran had halted its responses as a consequence.
“The US may have devised other scenarios for the coming days, but the current situation is not what they desire,” IRGC spokesman Mohammad Akraminia told state TV.
“If the Americans insist on continuing the war and airstrikes, the geography of the war will expand,” he added.
Why the pause?
The lull came as a weekend meeting between Iranian and Omani officials indicated a fresh attempt to resolve the crucial issue of shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, a global chokepoint that’s been at the heart of the conflict the US and Israel began in late February.
With traffic in that crucial waterway essentially paralysed, skirmishes between Yemen’s Houthi militants and Saudi Arabia have also ratcheted up tensions linked to another one — the Bab el-Mandeb in the southern Red Sea.
The Iran-backed Houthis said they fired missiles and drones at facilities linked to oil giant Saudi Aramco in the port towns of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday. There was no immediate confirmation from the Saudi government or Aramco.
Saudi authorities briefly issued emergency warnings before saying the danger had passed. A Saudi-led coalition responded by striking Houthi military positions later Saturday, according to Yemen TV, a channel affiliated with the country’s internationally recognised government.
The escalation in the Red Sea compounds an already severe squeeze on regional energy flows caused by the near-total stoppage of traffic via Hormuz, previously the conduit for a fifth of global crude supplies.
On Friday, the Saudi-led coalition struck the port from which the Houthis’ maritime assaults in the Red Sea typically originate. The Houthis also announced they would blockade Saudi ports and attacked three Saudi-linked oil tankers at sea.
Any sustained disruption to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export routes, through which it’s sending millions of barrels of oil a day as a workaround, mainly from Yanbu, would likely push up crude prices even more.
Brent crude has soared around 27 per cent in the past two weeks as US-Iran clashes worsened and the Houthis effectively opened a second front in the war. The global benchmark closed on Friday at $96.78 a barrel.
What Trump said
Donald Trump, who’s increasingly frustrated with Iran for refusing to reopen Hormuz, said late Friday the US is “locked and loaded” for major strikes on Iran. He added he had not made a decision on whether to go ahead, after telling Axios a few days ago he was mulling a “massive attack.”
The New York Times reported that Trump and his advisers have decided to hold off on plans to escalate US strikes for now, in part over concerns that the war could drain the already-diminished stocks of Patriot anti-missile interceptors and other air defence weapons in the region.
Trump has consistently said “he prefers a diplomatic solution, but he continues to retain all options if Iran continues terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against allies,” White House spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement. It would be “wise for Iran to work toward a negotiated deal.”
Speaking at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Friday night, Trump said Iran would “love to make a deal”, but he doesn’t think “it’s time yet.”
He also said the warring sides were talking, though his administration is offering few details.