The race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or has taken a fresh twist following the conclusion of the FIFA World Cup, with Spain’s Lamine Yamal emerging as the leading favourite to claim football’s biggest individual prize.
The updated rankings come after Spain defeated defending champions Argentina 1-0 after extra time in Sunday’s World Cup final. Ferran Torres scored the decisive goal after reacting quickest to Nico Williams’ knockdown, handing La Roja another major international title.
Following Spain’s triumph, prediction platform Polymarket now places Yamal at the top of the Ballon d’Or race with an estimated 50.8 per cent chance of winning the prestigious award.
England captain Harry Kane is ranked second with a 27.1 per cent probability after another impressive campaign that strengthened his credentials.
Argentina legend Lionel Messi remains among the contenders despite his side’s defeat in the World Cup final. The eight-time Ballon d’Or winner has been given a 7.5 per cent chance of lifting the award once again.
France captain Kylian Mbappe occupies fourth place with a 3.8 per cent probability after finishing the tournament as one of its standout performers.
The Ballon d’Or recognises the world’s best-performing footballer over the season, with international tournaments often playing a significant role in shaping the final outcome.
The winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or is expected to be announced during the annual awards ceremony scheduled for October 26.