Environment
CLIMATE scientists and policy experts have warned that attributing today’s extreme weather mainly to El Niño overlooks the far greater role of human-induced climate change.
The experts spoke during a virtual media briefing, titled “Fuel on Fire: Reporting El Niño and the True Costs of Climate Change,” organised by 350.org.
They said although El Niño contributes to higher global temperatures, climate change remains the dominant force intensifying heatwaves, droughts, floods and other extreme weather events.
Research Director at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), Davide Faranda, said the planet had already warmed by about 1.4 degrees Celsius due to greenhouse gas emissions.
He explained that the current El Niño could add about 0.25 degrees Celsius globally, but stressed that climate change provides the underlying conditions driving extreme weather.
Faranda said climate attribution science had progressed beyond proving that climate change influences extreme weather.
“The question is no longer whether climate change intensifies extreme weather, but by how much,” he said.
He cited research by the ClimaMeter attribution initiative showing that a recent June heatwave in Western Europe was up to 2.5 degrees Celsius hotter because of climate change.
Senior Engagement Specialist and Chief Meteorologist at Climate Central, Shel Winkley, likened climate change to “the cake” and El Niño to “the frosting on top.”
He said Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index showed that unusually warm ocean temperatures in parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean were up to 500 times more likely because of climate change.
Winkley also warned that nighttime temperatures were rising almost twice as fast as daytime temperatures, reducing people’s ability to recover from daytime heat stress.
Amira Odeh Quiñones, from 350.org’s Caribbean team, described the region as already facing a humanitarian emergency driven by climate change.
She said about 82 per cent of Puerto Rico was experiencing drought, with water rationing affecting some communities.
According to her, temperatures above 38 degrees Celsius have become widespread across the Greater Antilles.
She added that drought and heat were increasing the risks of dengue, Zika and chikungunya outbreaks.
Quiñones said unusually warm ocean waters were also fuelling larger sargassum seaweed blooms, affecting fisheries, tourism and coastal livelihoods.
“While we have experienced El Niño many times before in the Caribbean, the climate crisis is making this phenomenon much more intense,” she said.
Head of International Programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), Gareth Redmond-King, highlighted the growing economic costs of climate change.
He cited analysis suggesting current climate trends could reduce global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by as much as half later this century.
He said African countries were already losing between two and five per cent of GDP annually to climate impacts.
According to him, some countries now spend up to nine per cent of their national budgets responding to climate-related disasters.
Redmond-King also said climate change added an estimated 360 pounds to the average UK household’s food bill over 2022 and 2023.
He warned that climate disasters were worsening the global cost-of-living crisis by damaging crops, infrastructure and food systems.
“Climate change is absolutely at the heart of the cost-of-living crisis,” he said.
The experts agreed that while El Niño cannot be prevented, reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero remains the only scientifically proven solution to limiting future climate change.
They also urged journalists to report extreme weather within the broader context of climate change rather than attributing events primarily to El Niño.
According to 350.org, fossil fuel systems continue to receive about 12 trillion dollars in annual global subsidies, while ordinary people bear the costs through taxes, rising energy bills and increasingly destructive climate disasters.
F.O
Tags: Climate Change Extreme weather conditions