Iran war nears 100 days: Here's where peace talks with US, Lebanon ceasefire, and oil crisis stand
The war triggered by the United States and Israel’s military operation against Iran, which killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, entered its 97th day on Thursday, June 4, with no clear path to peace.
What began as a campaign that US President Donald Trump initially described as seeking “regime change” in Iran has evolved into a broader regional crisis. The conflict has raised fears of a prolonged energy shock as global trade through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, and instability persists across the Gulf. Here’s a look at where things stand as the war approaches the 100-day mark.
1. Talks remain stuck
Nearly a week has passed since US and Iranian negotiators reportedly reached a tentative agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and launch a fresh round of discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme, pending Trump’s approval. Track US-Iran war live updates.
However, progress has stalled after Trump sought unspecified changes to the proposal. Iranian officials, meanwhile, have shown little willingness to accept new conditions, raising doubts about whether negotiations can move forward.
The uncertainty has been compounded by fresh military exchanges between the two sides this week, fuelling concerns that the ceasefire could unravel.
Trump sought to downplay those fears on Wednesday. “It’s a different part of the world. You know, I’d say in that part of the world, a ceasefire is when you’re shooting in a more moderate manner,” news agency AP quoted the US president as saying in the Oval Office.
The current impasse follows months of optimism from Trump, who repeatedly claimed a deal was close after a 14-day ceasefire was agreed on April 7.
After reports suggested Tehran was stepping back from negotiations, Trump told CNBC he “couldn’t care less” if the talks had stalled and suggested they had become “boring.”
2. Pressure on Gulf nations
The conflict has forced members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – to reassess long-standing assumptions about regional security and stability.
Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, Gulf states have found themselves balancing the threat of military escalation with efforts to avoid becoming directly involved in the conflict.
Thousands of missiles and drones have targeted infrastructure across the region. At the same time, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz imposed by both Iran and the United States has disrupted trade routes and weakened economic confidence.
The impact has been particularly visible in aviation and tourism. In March, drones launched by Iran struck Dubai International Airport, prompting widespread disruption. More than 30,000 flights across the Middle East were cancelled, while several airlines continue to operate reduced schedules, a DW report said.
The crisis has also driven up operating costs, with jet fuel prices nearly doubling from a year ago due to the Hormuz blockade.
3. Energy infrastructure hit
Beyond airports and transport networks, the conflict has increasingly affected the region’s energy sector.
QatarEnergy said repairs to the Ras Laffan industrial hub, which was struck by an Iranian ballistic missile in March, could take up to 5 years.
QatarEnergy chief executive Saad Al Kaabi told the BBC the scale of destruction had “set the region back by 10 to 20 years.”
Oil markets showed signs of optimism on Thursday after reports of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon raised hopes that shipping routes could eventually reopen.
Brent crude futures fell $2.82, or 2.88%, to $94.99 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $3.19, or 3.32%, to $92.83. Even so, prices have remained elevated for most of the nearly three-month conflict, repeatedly climbing above $100 a barrel.
4. The Lebanon question
The situation in Lebanon remains another major obstacle to broader regional de-escalation.
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem on Thursday rejected a conditional truce announced by Lebanese and Israeli representatives, insisting that any agreement must include a comprehensive ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
His remarks came after Lebanese and Israeli envoys in the United States backed a conditional ceasefire proposal that Lebanon’s president described as the “last chance” to end the fighting.
Lebanon became directly involved in the wider conflict after Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel following the February 28 killing of Khamenei.
A previous ceasefire announced on April 17 has been repeatedly violated, with Israeli troops remaining inside Lebanese territory and Hezbollah continuing cross-border attacks.
“The ceasefire must be comprehensive… without the Israeli enemy having the freedom to kill,” Qassem said Thursday.
Iran has meanwhile maintained that any durable settlement in the region must also include a lasting truce in Lebanon, further complicating efforts to secure an end to a conflict that is now approaching the 100-day mark.
(With inputs from AP, AFP)