An increasingly risky bet for Democrats in Maine

That leaves Democrats in an awkward position. Until recently, Mr Platner appeared to have secured the party’s nomination. His main challenger, Janet Mills, a two-term Democratic governor, suspended her campaign in April. Yet on June 1st she posted from her campaign’s X account for the first time since, fuelling speculation that she may re-enter the race before the party’s primary on June 9th. The implications extend beyond that contest. Maine is one of four seats Democrats are likely to need if they are to regain control of the Senate in November.

Mr Platner’s candidacy had raised hopes that this is possible. In seven polls conducted this year pitting him against Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent, Mr Platner has led by an average of 7.7 points. The 41-year-old Marine infantryman turned oyster farmer has woven an outsider narrative, appealing to voters across the political spectrum who are angry at economic and political elites. In one campaign video he bonds with a three-time Trump voter over their shared belief that Bernie Sanders, a socialist senator from Vermont, was denied the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016 by “the powers that be”. In speeches he portrays Ms Collins as out of touch with working-class Mainers, beholden to corporate interests and too willing to accommodate Donald Trump.

Voters seem to regard Mr Platner, flaws and all, as one of their own. He is persuasive when he says he did not know the meaning of his tattoo (since covered up) when he got it while on leave with fellow Marines; and when he explains that his controversial social-media posts were written during a period of alienation and depression after serving in combat. But not everyone is convinced. Recently, as Mr Platner’s staff prepared a lectern at a petrol station for remarks on a proposal to abolish the federal tax on gasoline, a passing motorist shouted: “He’s a fucking Nazi!” Moments later another driver pulled in, gave a joking Sieg Heil salute and said he would not vote for “no Nazi boy”.

The latest allegations may be harder to dismiss. A Kik account apparently belonging to Mr Platner includes a profile picture showing a shirtless man, photographed in a mirror with a towel wrapped around his waist, whose tattoos appear to match those of the candidate. A campaign official told The Economist that Mr Platner had downloaded the app when he was single, that it had long been deleted from his phone and that he had not messaged anyone under 18. “Anyone who suggests otherwise,” the official added, “is lying.”

Ms Collins is in many ways the antithesis of Mr Platner: a cautious moderate and political veteran 32 years his senior. She is also remarkably resilient. For almost three decades she has survived in a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. To do so, Ms Collins has relied on support from Democrats, typically winning 10-15% of their votes. According to our analysis, which accounts for a state’s partisan lean and the national political environment, she has recorded three of the eight largest Republican Senate overperformances since 2008.

Over the years Democrats have tried nearly every type of challenger against Ms Collins, from a member of Congress to a lawyer for the American Civil Liberties Union. In 2020 Sara Gideon, then speaker of Maine’s House of Representatives, lost by eight points despite outspending Ms Collins by two to one. “I think people wanted to try something different” this year, says Toby McGrath, a Democratic-leaning strategist in Maine.

Many voters have yet to tune in to an election that is still five months away. Ms Collins’s supporters note that polls consistently underestimated her in 2020, showing her trailing Ms Gideon even though she ultimately won comfortably. That discrepancy may have been due in part to pollsters’ difficulty reaching low-propensity voters, who turned out in large numbers for Mr Trump. Without his name on the ballot this time, Ms Collins may not benefit from the same boost in turnout.

In May both candidates released their first advertisements after the general-election contest came into focus. Mr Platner’s ad accused Ms Collins of selling out working-class voters. Ms Collins’s highlighted her success in securing funding to repair a breakwater that collapsed in 2014. The contrast between the two could hardly be starker. With each new scandal surrounding Mr Platner, it becomes starker still.