Just lately, after the mass killing in Jos, Plateau State, President Bola Tinubu mentioned he was not elected “to consolation and create widows and widowers”. But since he turned president barely three years in the past, his administration has overseen the creation of 1000’s of widows, widowers and orphans whose husbands, wives and fogeys had been killed in terrorist assaults. After every assault, President Tinubu would mourn the useless, console their widows and widowers after which authoritatively declare, as if issuing the irreversible regulation of the Medes and Persians: “This expertise received’t repeat itself”!
However such pronouncements are perfunctory; they’re filled with sound and fury, signifying nothing. As an illustration, after the Jos killings on March 30, Tinubu vowed that “this received’t occur once more”. But, just some days later, there have been lethal assaults in Benue State, killing 17 individuals, and in Kaduna State the place a number of residents had been massacred in a church, whereas contemporary killings occurred in Jos. In a pointy rebuke, Amnesty Worldwide accused President Tinubu of “issuing turgid statements condemning the assaults”, whereas “failing to guard lives”.
To make certain, President Tinubu inherited the hydra-headed monster known as terrorism. Nonetheless, insecurity in Nigeria normally will get progressively worse, with extra lives misplaced and extra individuals kidnapped underneath every authorities than underneath its predecessor. As many will bear in mind, President Goodluck Jonathan presided over a state of mayhem, culminating in Boko Haram’s kidnap of 276 Chibok schoolgirls in 2014. Insecurity largely price Jonathan his re-election in 2015. Basic Muhammadu Buhari and his celebration, APC, seized on the dreadful safety state of affairs to painting Jonathan as totally weak, and vowed to defeat terrorism in Nigeria if elected. Brandishing his expertise as a retired Basic, Buhari mentioned his authorities would do “all the pieces in its energy” to defeat insurgency in Nigeria.
Certainly, in energy, Buhari initially acted as if he was on to one thing transformative. He fired the navy commanders and changed them with these broadly considered “first-class officers”. He promised to spice up morale within the navy by way of funding in tools and within the coaching and welfare of troopers. He mentioned he would work tirelessly to construct a powerful regional alliance in opposition to terrorism in Nigeria and attain out to the broader worldwide neighborhood for assist. But, regardless of these “efforts”, Buhari failed woefully. In 2018, almost 4 years in energy, President Buhari took $1 billion from the Extra Crude Account to “battle the rising spate of insecurity throughout the nation”, an admission that his prior anti-insurgency “efforts” had failed. By the point Buhari left workplace in 2023, extra Nigerians had died from terrorism, insurgency, banditry, and so forth, underneath his authorities than underneath the administration of President Jonathan! Below Buhari, Nigeria ranked because the world’s fifth most harmful nation, in line with the Legatum Prosperity Index for Security and Safety.
That was the appalling safety atmosphere President Tinubu inherited on Might 29, 2023. However issues all the time get progressively worse, not higher, in Nigeria. As such, it has taken Tinubu lower than three years in workplace to attain a worse safety state of affairs than Buhari did in eight years in energy. In Might 2025, Amnesty Worldwide mentioned at the very least 10,217 individuals had been killed within the first two years of Tinubu’s administration. Since then, the determine has reached about 18,000, in line with one safety analyst. What’s extra, Nigeria ranked fourth within the 2026 world terrorism index, not too long ago revealed by the Institute for Economics and Peace, recording a 46 per cent enhance in deaths from terrorism in 2025.
Like Buhari, Tinubu has taken performative actions that haven’t moved the needle on insecurity in Nigeria. He, too, sacked service chiefs and changed them with acclaimed “first-class officers”, however what have they achieved to this point? Tinubu’s Nationwide Safety Adviser, Nuru Ribadu, has made little distinction in that position. The brand new Minister of Defence, Basic Christoper Musa (rtd), the fast previous chief of defence employees, has additionally did not familiarize yourself with the safety problem. Their appointments had been motivated by political issues, not expectations of tangible outcomes.
In November final yr, President Tinubu declared a “nationwide safety emergency”. He ordered the military and the police to recruit extra personnel and known as for expedited motion on state police. Sadly, hardly anybody, not even the president, considers the nice hazard that well-armed terrorists, insurgents and bandits, who usually scare the daylights out of demoralised troopers, would have a subject day killing ramshackle state law enforcement officials like chickens. Nonetheless performative, President Tinubu ordered the acquisition of 5,000 surveillance cameras in Plateau State after the Jos bloodbath. One should surprise, why did the concept of putting in CCTV cameras in bother spots simply happen to the president, almost three years in workplace, solely after one more spherical of massacre?
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After all, the dire safety state of affairs in Nigeria is a basic failure of governance. All through the historical past of human authorities, it’s been universally recognised that the primary responsibility of any authorities is to guard the lives and property of its residents. That’s the irreducible core of the “social contract”, an idea established by nice philosophers like Thomas Hobbes and John Locke. In a single report, the UK Home of Lords mentioned: “It’s the first duty of a authorities in a democratic society to guard and safeguard the lives of its residents. That is the place the general public curiosity lies. It’s important to the preservation of democracy.” So, why have successive Nigerian governments shirked this basic responsibility? Or why have the “efforts” of successive governments did not deal with the acute and persistent insecurity in Nigeria?
Nicely, the reply is twofold. First, Nigeria is a deeply fragile state. Second, Nigeria is a deeply fractured state. Take the fragility first. Of their seminal report titled “Escaping the fragility entice”, Professors Paul Collier and Tim Besley recognized “safety threats from organised non-state violence” as a significant symptom of state fragility. All nations face safety challenges, however fragile states lack the capability to reply successfully to them. One of many key options of a powerful state is a monopoly on the usage of organised violence inside its territory. However the Nigerian state lacks a monopoly of violence; organised non-state violence usually trumps organised state violence. Nigerian troopers are so poorly educated, outfitted and remunerated that they’re usually outgunned and outsmarted by higher outfitted and extra motivated terrorists and bandits. For a rustic that has weak capability for important capabilities, resembling the availability of primary facilities, Nigeria’s lack of state capability is a significant purpose it could possibly’t assure the security and safety of its residents.
The second purpose is that Nigeria is a deeply fractured society, the place spiritual and ethnic polarisations are excessive, and the place abuse of energy and lack of accountable management have deepened mistrust between the federal government and the ruled. Empirical research have proven any nation with such traits will all the time have acute safety challenges. Give it some thought. Organised non-state violence in Nigeria is both religiously or ethnically motivated, usually pushed by long-standing grievances between {groups}. Moreover, they’re fuelled by egocentric politicians. In 2018, a former senator, Naj’atu Muhammed mentioned that “terrorism has change into a multi-billion-dollar business in Nigeria”. But when terrorism is such a flourishing business, some individuals have to be funding and taking advantage of it. In 2020, Dr Obadiah Mailafia mentioned that some unnamed Northern governors had been sponsors of Boko Haram. He was hounded till his dying. But, Dr Mailafia was proper: terrorism, insurgency and banditry in Nigeria have highly effective political sponsors, who stay untouchable.
Reality is, Nigeria is a weak state; it’s additionally an abusive, totally divided state. No nation with these traits can deal with safety challenges successfully. Till Nigeria tackles its weak state capability, till it achieves true nationhood and till it holds its leaders accountable and punishes perpetrators of the heinous crimes of terrorism, insurgency and banditry, as a substitute of kid-gloving them, it’s going to by no means be a protected, safe and secure nation, regardless of the performative “efforts” of the federal government!
*Dr Fasan is the writer of ‘In The Nationwide Curiosity: The Street to Nigeria’s Political, {Economic} and Social Transformation’, accessible at RovingHeights bookstores.
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