Quartus Economics: Nigeria’s GDP Outpaces Population Growth, Signalling Early Signs Of Poverty Reduction
Nigeria’s economy is showing early but notable signs of recovery, with new analysis indicating that output is now expanding faster than population growth—an important shift that could support sustained poverty reduction if maintained.
This is according to a report by Quartus Economics, which says Nigeria recorded a strong rebound in 2025 after a sluggish economic performance in previous years, with improvements driven by higher output, currency stability, and modest macroeconomic gains.
The report shows that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose sharply in dollar terms from $252.1 billion in 2024 to $307.5 billion in 2025, representing a 21.98 per cent increase. On a per capita basis, GDP increased from $1,083 to $1,295, marking a 19.5 per cent rise despite continued population growth.
In naira terms, nominal GDP expanded from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025.
Drawing on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the report highlights a structural shift in Nigeria’s growth pattern, where economic expansion is now outpacing demographic growth.
Nigeria’s population increased by about 2.1 per cent in 2025, adding an estimated 4.8 million people. However, GDP growth of nearly 22 per cent in dollar terms meant that average output per person still rose significantly.
“For years, Nigeria struggled to grow its economy faster than its population. That pattern has now reversed, creating a pathway for meaningful reductions in poverty,” the report stated.
Between 2020 and 2023, the economy recorded cumulative growth of less than one per cent, while population grew by more than 10 per cent. But between 2024 and 2025, output expanded by over 8 per cent compared to population growth of about 4.25 per cent.
The report attributes the improvement to stronger economic activity and a relatively more stable exchange rate environment. Nigeria’s nominal GDP rose from N372.8 trillion to N441.5 trillion, an 18.43 per cent increase, while the naira appreciated slightly from N1,479 per dollar in 2024 to N1,436 in 2025.
“Currency stability has played a key role in improving dollar-denominated GDP and supporting household welfare by helping preserve real incomes,” the report noted.
Quartus Economics also compared Nigeria’s performance with regional and global peers, stating that the country outperformed most Sub-Saharan African economies, which recorded average GDP growth of 10.33 per cent in dollar terms and 7.66 per cent per capita.
Among major African economies, only Ghana recorded stronger growth at 37.7 per cent, while Nigeria outpaced South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, and Morocco in both overall and per capita expansion.
Beyond Africa, Nigeria’s growth also exceeded that of several emerging markets, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, and Mexico.
Despite the positive trend, the report cautioned that poverty levels remain high, though it pointed to “modest but clear signs of progress” driven by currency stability, rising production, and improved macroeconomic alignment.
“Prosperity is not determined by fiat,” the report stressed, adding that sustained gains depend on continued reforms, stability, and productivity growth.
It further warned that while improvements are evident, Nigeria’s per capita income remains below historical highs and still lags behind several peer economies.
“There is clear evidence that Nigeria’s economic fortune is once again on the rise. This time, the lift can, and must, be sustained,” the report concluded.
Analysts say the key test ahead will be whether Nigeria can maintain this growth trajectory and translate macroeconomic gains into widespread improvements in living standards across its fast-growing population.
Boluwatife Enome
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