“First we eat; then we do every little thing else”
This alarm has develop into obligatory as a result of one other warning printed on this web page, in January 2025, was ignored, at first, by governments. Disastrous penalties adopted; leading to delayed over-reaction by the Federal Authorities. This, in flip has precipitated a meals worth cycle – imports crashed costs, home producers sustained losses and lowered production and costs begin to rise once more. Not like 2025, when meals costs typically plummeted, 2026 guarantees to reverse the development considerably. Two important developments power this alarm – one home, the opposite international. They are going to be handled later. However, first, beneath are related parts of the January 2025 article.
Repair meals first and quick or overlook it
“There are folks on the earth, so hungry, that God can not seem to them besides in type of bread.” Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948.
The good Indian chief and liberator made that comment earlier than he was assassinated in 1948 at a time when his nation, now divided into at the very least three nations, suffered from meals shortage worse than Nigeria is experiencing now. Actually, it will also be stated that there are tens of millions of individuals in Nigeria as we speak, so hungry, that God can not seem to them besides both as a loaf of bread or a bowl of cooked rice. I used to be solely 4 years previous in 1948. So, I needed to interview these far older than me to understand how the meals scenario was like on the time – along with historic analysis. Surprisingly, Nigeria was then a internet exporter of meals at a time when virtually 99 per cent of Nigerians have been illiterates; when the College of Ibadan was simply opening its doorways to college students. All of the Nigerian college graduates couldn’t have been greater than 1000. At this time, UI alone graduates over 5,000 yearly. All Nigerian universities throw greater than 120,000 into the job market. What’s the usage of our famed “educated manpower” if we can not feed ourselves now?
India, in the identical interval beneath overview, has additionally despatched tens of tens of millions of graduates out of its universities; much more than we did. However, one thing fascinating occurred. India, a formally food-deficit nation in 1948 has been reworked right into a meals exporter; whereas Nigeria, a former food-exporter is now a food-deficit nation, relying on others for our survival. We already know one purpose why. Nigeria found oil; India didn’t. However, we proceed to keep away from mentioning a extra basic purpose. Educated Indians and their leaders are clever and Nigerians should not. Let me rapidly clarify.
“Meals is nationwide safety, meals is economic system; it’s employment, vitality, historical past. Meals is every little thing.” Chef Jose Andres, founding father of World Central Kitchen.
Most of us are even so ignorant in regards to the traits of meals, we don’t know that meals is one other definition of “saved vitality as Jose Andre advised us. Probably the most highly effective and richest can refuse to do lots of issues. None can refuse to eat.
What has modified?
“Rice Mills Are Closing” – Report, March 2026.
“3.7 million Nigerians displaced” – VANGUARD, March 2026.
Sponsored
“Iran struggle threatens international meals provide”. Google Report, March, 2026.
Change is inevitable in human affairs. A number of modifications have occurred threatening international meals provide typically and Nigeria particularly – Rice mills in Nigeria closing, 3.7 million Nigerians now in Internally Displaced Individuals camps and the struggle in Iran. Individually they signify threat to meals production; collectively, they portend calamity.
Rice mills closing take away incentives for farmers to plant. Combination productiveness declines – not simply rice, however different minor crops, greens, okra, which most farmers domesticate on the periphery of rice farms. With rice out, a basket of meals objects undergo decline. Galloping meals inflation follows rapidly. It’s already taking place.
A short expertise whereas attending a convention on poverty alleviation in India in 1983 instantly grew to become helpful. Among the individuals on the convention have been simply beginning to promote the thought of city farming – which on the time appeared like a joke given the huge acres of uncultivated land out there in all places. Few assume that inhabitants development, the calls for of {economic} growth will shrink the land out there for farming; and solely by rising yield per acre and adopting landless farming strategies will the tons of of tens of millions of mouths added yearly be fed. At this time, over 30 million city and suburban farmers are producing extra meals than ever earlier than. The sky is now actually the restrict as tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers, carrots and potatoes are actually grown on the balconies of twenty-storey buildings. Extra individuals are entering into it. Penthouses, and flower beds now have sunflowers rising facet by facet with meals objects not like earlier than. Dried sunflower seeds make wonderful vegetable oil.
An image is value ten thousand phrases. The desk above summarized from VANGUARD’s lead story, stunning as it’s, merely scratches the floor. Underlying that sensible report is the actual disaster unfolding in actual time. No meals productiveness loss would happen if the three.7 million individuals are in Lagos State – which produces subsequent to nothing, however, eat essentially the most. Sadly, for Nigeria, roughly 3.3 million or 91 per cent are positioned in simply eight states – Borno, Benue, Zamfara, Katsina, Adamawa, Yobe, Sokoto and Kaduna. Add these in Plateau, Kano, Kwara, Kogi and Kebbi and Nigeria’s “”meals basket” is full. An awesome share of these in IDPs, maybe as much as 1.5 million, have been farmers producing meals to feed themselves and the remainder of us. In IDP camps, they produce nothing; and nonetheless eat. No person wants a level in Finance and Economics to know why that transformation alone would exacerbate meals insecurity and deepen poverty. Extra regarding is the truth that with the elevated assaults on rural communities, extra IDPs are on the best way to the camps; concurrently, extra farmers are deserting the farms. Nothing means that insecurity will abate earlier than the planting interval expires. Planting later invariably reduces potential output.
“All issues do assist the sad man to fall”. William Shakespeare, 1564-1616.
An sad nation can also be subjected to many hazards – inner and exterior. The struggle in Iran couldn’t have began at a worse time for Nigeria. With out it, the nation would have confronted an uphill activity feeding the folks later this 12 months and later subsequent 12 months. With the struggle’s destruction of gasoline installations within the Center East, even when it ends as we speak, your entire world and Nigeria face inevitable inflation; with headline meals inflation main the surge. Huge rice imports which saved us late final 12 months will arrive with heftier worth tags; at a time when combination and particular person disposable revenue is falling nationally.
Think about gasoline costs, which on the weekend of March 20-21, 2026 skyrocketed to N1,300 litre, from N890 in January; and the image is sort of full.
The place are governments?
“Farming could be mighty straightforward, whether it is performed with [computers and biros and now AI] in a comfortable workplace.” US President James Madison, 1751-1836.
From private expertise, farming is likely one of the most tough, however, enormously rewarding duties anyone can undertake. We’d like extra farmers to avert calamity; we additionally want extra authorities presence. Sadly, politics has taken high precedence. All our elected leaders not care about meals for the plenty – who will vote in January 2027.