For Ibrahim Olarinrin, a 38-year-old Lagos resident, the monthly salary that once helped sustain his family of four has become increasingly inadequate. By the third week of the month, his earnings are reportedly exhausted, leaving little room for unexpected expenses.
Olarinrin, who works in accounting and finance, earns about ₦300,000 monthly, while his household’s monthly food expenses at approximately ₦360,000. When transportation, electricity, cooking gas, internet and other basic costs are added, the family’s estimated monthly expenditure rises to about ₦462,500.
The calculation excludes rent, school fees, healthcare, clothing and emergencies.
His experience captures a growing concern among Nigerian households: even when people remain employed, their incomes are struggling to keep pace with the cost of maintaining a family.
More than three years after President Bola Tinubu introduced his Renewed Hope agenda, the country’s economic reforms have altered the cost of living in profound ways. While the government points to improved economic indicators and the need to correct longstanding structural problems, many families are still waiting for those reforms to translate into meaningful relief.
For households like Olarinrin’s, the economic debate is not primarily about exchange-rate policy, fiscal consolidation or foreign reserves. It is about how much food can be bought, how children get to school, how electricity is paid for and whether there is anything left at the end of the month.
When the food budget consumes the salary
Food is one of the biggest pressures on household finances.
Tinubu’s decision to remove the petrol subsidy shortly after taking office in May 2023 triggered a sharp increase in fuel prices. The consequences extended beyond the cost of filling vehicle tanks. Transportation became more expensive, raising the cost of moving agricultural produce from farms to markets and increasing the operating expenses of businesses.
The effect was felt in household food budgets, particularly among low- and middle-income earners whose incomes did not increase at the same pace as prices.
Although food inflation has moderated from earlier peaks, slower inflation does not mean that food has returned to its previous prices. It means prices are increasing more slowly, or in some cases declining, after substantial increases.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to Nigeria’s headline inflation in August 2026. Food inflation stood at 19.57 per cent year-on-year, while headline inflation was 15.39 per cent.
A report on the SBM Jollof Index for the third quarter of 2026 found that food prices had declined in several markets, but the relief was limited by high transportation costs and weak consumer purchasing power.
In some southern markets, including Lagos and Abuja, traders attributed lower prices partly to reduced demand, as consumers struggled to afford previous quantities.
This distinction matters. A reduction in market prices does not necessarily mean households are financially better off. Families may simply be buying less.
For a household already spending a substantial portion of its income on food, the choice becomes difficult: reduce the quantity purchased, switch to cheaper alternatives, cut other expenses or find additional sources of income.
Transport costs: The price of getting through the day
The removal of petrol subsidy has also changed the cost of daily movement.
Workers must pay more to commute, traders face higher distribution expenses, and families with children have to consider school transportation alongside other household bills.
Reuters reported in September 2026 that petrol prices had risen to around ₦1,400 per litre in Lagos and Abuja, with some northern locations recording higher prices. The report linked the increase to rising international oil prices and adjustments by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The development illustrated a challenge confronting the government’s domestic refining ambitions: local production does not automatically shield consumers from international oil market movements.
For many households, transport costs have become a recurring drain on income. Workers who cannot afford daily commercial transport may walk longer distances, reduce the number of trips they make or spend more time searching for cheaper alternatives.
The pressure also extends to food prices. According to the SBM survey reported by The Punch, transport expenses continued to undermine the benefits of lower produce prices, while unofficial charges along some routes added to distribution costs.
The result is an economy in which a household can experience a reduction in the price of certain food items without necessarily having more money available for other needs.
Electricity: Paying more for alternatives
Electricity remains another major expense for Nigerian families.
Although the administration has introduced reforms aimed at improving the power sector, unreliable grid supply means many households still depend on generators, inverters and other alternative sources.
For families using petrol generators, the cost of electricity is linked directly to fuel prices. Those using inverters must also contend with battery replacement, maintenance and the cost of charging when grid supply is available.
Consumers also face electricity bills, meter-related concerns and differences in tariffs across service bands.
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission reported an average grid generation of approximately 4,022 megawatts in the second quarter of 2026. The figure underscores the continuing gap between the country’s electricity needs and the supply available through the national grid.
The Federal Government also incurred an electricity subsidy obligation of about ₦1.93 trillion in 2025, according to NERC’s annual report. The subsidy helps keep tariffs below the full cost of supply for many consumers, but it has not resolved the sector’s infrastructure and service-delivery problems.
For a working family, the practical question is simple: why must electricity remain an additional financial burden when reliable power is essential for education, work, business and everyday living?
The administration’s power-sector reforms will ultimately be judged by whether households receive more reliable electricity and spend less on alternative sources.
Insecurity: When fear affects the household economy
The cost of insecurity is often measured in lives lost, people abducted and communities displaced. But its economic consequences also reach ordinary households.
When farmers cannot safely access their fields, agricultural production and food supply are affected. When roads become dangerous, transporters and traders face additional risks and costs. When communities are displaced, families lose homes, livelihoods and access to education.
The International Monetary Fund’s June 2026 assessment of Nigeria identified insecurity as a major threat to economic activity, particularly in agriculture and investment.
It estimated that 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in the autumn of 2025 and that poverty had reached 63 per cent under the national poverty line.
These figures show that economic hardship cannot be separated from the country’s security challenges.
For families in affected communities, insecurity can mean spending money to relocate, paying for safer transportation, losing income because businesses close or withdrawing children from school.
Even households in relatively safer urban areas feel the consequences through food prices, disrupted supply chains and the cost of doing business.
Tinubu’s administration has repeatedly promised to strengthen security operations and dismantle criminal networks. However, the test of progress is whether farmers can return to their land, children can attend school safely and families can travel without fear.
The economic reforms: Progress in the figures, pressure in the home
The government has defended its policies as necessary steps to correct longstanding economic distortions.
The removal of petrol subsidies was intended to reduce pressure on public finances, while foreign exchange reforms sought to establish a more transparent and market-driven system.
There have been measurable improvements. The IMF estimated Nigeria’s economic growth at 4 per cent in 2025 and projected 4.1 per cent growth in 2026. It also acknowledged improvements in macroeconomic conditions following the reforms.
The World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update similarly noted resilient economic growth and stronger fiscal revenues, while emphasising the need for more inclusive growth, job creation and improved living standards.
However, both institutions have highlighted the difficulty of translating macroeconomic progress into better household welfare.
The World Bank’s assessment noted that poverty remained widespread and that food inflation disproportionately affected poorer households, which can spend up to 70 per cent of their income on food.
This is the central tension surrounding the Renewed Hope agenda: the economy may be stabilising in some respects, but the benefits are not yet being felt equally across society.
Economic growth does not automatically increase workers’ salaries. Higher government revenue does not guarantee better public services. A stronger foreign reserve position does not immediately make food, transport or electricity affordable.
The challenge for the administration is to ensure that the gains from reform reach households through jobs, improved infrastructure, targeted support and more effective public spending.
The struggle beyond food and transportation
For families such as Olarinrin’s, the monthly budget does not end with food, transport and electricity.
Rent, school fees, healthcare, cooking gas, internet subscriptions, clothing and other essential expenses compete for the same limited income.
When food alone costs more than a worker’s monthly salary, the family must depend on additional income, savings or borrowing to meet its needs.
This leaves little room for emergencies and long-term planning. A medical bill, school expense or unexpected repair can disrupt the entire household budget.
The situation also raises questions about the adequacy of wage increases and social intervention programmes.
The Federal Government has introduced cash transfers and other support measures for vulnerable households. But the IMF’s June 2026 assessment noted that the cash transfer system had enrolled 9.2 million households towards a target of 15 million, while the support received by enrolled households had been limited.
The effectiveness of such programmes depends not only on the number of beneficiaries announced but also on whether assistance reaches the intended households regularly and provides meaningful relief.
What does Renewed Hope mean for ordinary Nigerians?
Tinubu’s economic reforms were introduced with the promise of creating a stronger foundation for national development. Their supporters argue that Nigeria could not continue indefinitely with costly subsidies, exchange-rate distortions and weak public revenue.
That argument deserves consideration. However, the economic costs borne by citizens also require accountability.
The government must explain how subsidy savings have been used, what measurable improvements have been achieved in electricity and transport infrastructure, how many sustainable jobs have been created and what support is reaching households struggling with the cost of living.
It must also demonstrate that improved revenue collection and economic growth are producing better schools, hospitals, roads, security and other essential services.
For ordinary Nigerians, the measure of Renewed Hope is not simply whether the economy is growing. It is whether a worker can feed a family on a monthly salary, whether a trader can transport goods without losing most of the profit, whether children can attend school without their parents falling into debt and whether households can enjoy electricity without paying repeatedly for alternative power.
As the country approaches another election cycle, these everyday experiences will shape how citizens assess the President’s performance.
The administration may point to difficult reforms and improving economic indicators, but families will judge the government by what remains in their pockets after meeting their basic needs.
For households struggling to balance food, transport, electricity and security expenses, the promise of Renewed Hope remains a question of when economic progress will finally become visible at home.