Political analyst Dr Ope Banwo has rated President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s performance on security at four out of 10, citing the growing spread of kidnapping, persistent attacks on farmers and declining investor confidence as major setbacks in the administration’s fight against insecurity.
Banwo delivered the assessment in the second episode of his 12-part Jagaban Scorecard Series, an initiative examining Tinubu’s performance across key sectors of the economy and governance.
He argued that kidnapping had spread beyond traditionally recognised flashpoints, making insecurity a growing concern for Nigerians across different regions and walks of life.
According to him, health workers, traditional rulers, religious leaders, students, doctors, farmers, travellers and other ordinary citizens remain vulnerable to abduction, raising questions about the ability of Nigerians to carry out their daily activities without fear.
He expressed particular concern about the impact of insecurity on agriculture, warning that farmers’ inability to access their farmlands safely could undermine food production, worsen economic hardship and discourage investment in the sector.
Banwo illustrated the situation with the experience of a friend who operated large-scale farms in northern Nigeria but was forced to relocate to Ogun State and rebuild his agricultural business because of persistent security threats.
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He, however, noted that even Ogun State was increasingly facing security concerns and could no longer be considered entirely safe.
The analyst maintained that when farmers are afraid to visit their farms, the consequences extend beyond agricultural production to food availability, employment, rural livelihoods and the wider economy.
He warned that prospective investors, particularly those considering large-scale agricultural ventures, could be discouraged by the risks of kidnapping and attacks on business owners and workers.
Banwo consequently described security as a critical economic policy issue, insisting that the protection of lives and property was fundamental to attracting domestic and foreign investment.
He said Nigeria’s investor confidence remained below the level required to attract the volume of capital needed for economic growth, arguing that international investors considered security conditions alongside tax policies, regulations and other business incentives before committing funds.
According to him, reports of kidnappings, attacks and other violent crimes could undermine investment decisions, regardless of the government’s efforts to improve the business environment.
Beyond the economic implications, Banwo questioned the effectiveness of the government’s communication regarding military operations against terrorists and other criminal groups.
He argued that announcements about the destruction of terrorist camps often lacked sufficient details to enable Nigerians to independently assess the actual outcomes of such operations.
He also questioned the circumstances surrounding the Orire rescue operation in Oyo State, where the military reportedly announced that abducted victims had been rescued, while their families allegedly maintained that ransom payments were made to secure their release.
Banwo said the conflicting accounts raised questions about the actual circumstances of the operation and called for greater clarity in government communication on security interventions.
He also challenged claims that the Tinubu administration was winning the war against insecurity, questioning why some supporters of the All Progressives Congress continued to give the government positive ratings despite persistent fears among ordinary Nigerians.
He asked whether those celebrating the administration’s security record could travel to their hometowns without requiring large contingents of armed policemen and soldiers for protection.
The analyst also highlighted the anxiety surrounding road travel, noting that many Nigerians still embarked on journeys with the fear that they might not return safely.
He argued that the effectiveness of security policies should be measured by the experiences of citizens rather than military announcements and official claims of operational successes.
Banwo, however, acknowledged that Tinubu did not inherit a completely secure country, recalling that former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari also grappled with serious security challenges during their administrations.
He cautioned against dismissing every effort made by the current government, insisting that it would be unfair to suggest that nothing had changed since Tinubu assumed office.
Nevertheless, he maintained that inherited security challenges could not absolve the present administration of its responsibility to deliver measurable improvements in the safety of lives and property.
He criticised claims that Nigeria had never been safer, arguing that such assertions must be weighed against the daily experiences of citizens who remain afraid of travelling, farming and conducting ordinary economic activities.
Returning to the human cost of insecurity, Banwo said families continued to worry about relatives travelling by road, while farmers and agricultural investors remained apprehensive about possible attacks and abductions.
He stressed that agriculture had the potential to become one of Nigeria’s biggest sources of economic growth and foreign exchange earnings but would struggle to achieve its full potential without a secure environment for farmers.
In a pointed assessment of the administration’s performance, he said the ultimate test of security was whether ordinary Nigerians, including market women and rural residents, could sleep peacefully, travel freely and pursue their livelihoods without fear.
He highlighted the troubling question confronting many Nigerians before embarking on road journeys: “Am I going to make it back home?”
Banwo argued that until citizens could undertake routine journeys and economic activities without apprehension, claims of significant security achievements would remain unconvincing to many Nigerians.
He consequently awarded Tinubu four out of 10 on the security index, concluding the second instalment of his Jagaban Scorecard Series with a critical assessment of the administration’s performance in protecting lives and property.