On July 19, the 47th anniversary of the Sandinista Revolution that ended the Somoza dictatorship in Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega declared that elections would no longer offer a path to power. “They should forget about it,” he said, presumably referring to the many plotters, subversives and traitors the octogenarian president has claimed to be battling since he returned to power in 2007.
The announcement caused an uproar. Within days, Rosario Murillo — who, in addition to being Mr. Ortega’s wife and co-president, is the regime’s chief propagandist — was spinning the news. She said that elections will continue, but under new rules barring foreign interests and preventing so-called traitors and imperialist lackeys from competing for power.
The head of the National Assembly spoke of a reform that would increase the presidential term to seven years from six and allow it to be renewed for an additional seven years — a surreal idea that makes the presidency sound like a car lease. Whatever the exact process, it’s clear that the regime will do whatever it takes to keep husband and wife in power until death.
The regime already effectively controls the electoral authorities, the legislature, the courts, the police, the army and virtually every other institution capable of influencing electoral outcomes. In 2021, Mr. Ortega jailed nearly every serious contender for the presidency, along with hundreds of other critics and opposition members. Many of them were declared traitors, flown to the United States and stripped of their citizenship. So why abandon even the fiction of free elections?
One answer may lie in Ms. Murillo’s ambition to become president — and her anxiety about what may happen if she is the sole candidate. I have known the actors in this drama for decades, and I know her methods. I believe Ms. Murillo fears losing even a rigged election; that she is scared of appearing on the ballot by herself.
Ms. Murillo has accumulated enormous power. She became Mr. Ortega’s vice president in 2017, and was named co-president eight years later through a constitutional amendment that eliminated the separation of powers and gave the couple absolute control over the state — and made clear that she would succeed Mr. Ortega upon his death. As he appears visibly diminished and increasingly incoherent, she, who is five years younger, is closer than ever to finally rising to the top.
Neither Mr. Ortega nor, much less, Ms. Murillo could win a free and fair election. Mr. Ortega lost the presidential election in 1990 after over a decade in power, and regained the presidency in 2007 having received only 38 percent of the vote. Although there are no longer any independent opinion polls inside the country, according to a survey conducted by Hagamos Democracia, a well-known Nicaraguan nonprofit now operating from Costa Rica, over 95.8 percent of Nicaraguans have a negative view of the future and 66.4 percent would leave the country if they could.
Whatever remains of Mr. Ortega’s legitimacy is rooted in the revolutionary years and in his own revolutionary credentials. His name is associated — however distorted that association has now become — with the struggle against the Somoza dynasty, the triumph of 1979 and the mythology of the Sandinista Revolution.
In contrast, Ms. Murillo’s power derives from her association with Mr. Ortega. She does not possess his history, his revolutionary authority or even his residual emotional connection with parts of the Sandinista base, and she is very unpopular in her own right. In a deeply religious and often superstitious society, she is frequently referred to as “la Chamuca,” or the witch, because of her frequent use of esoteric symbols and mystical language. She is considered both fearsome and an object of suspicion and ridicule.
Ms. Murillo appears to understand her situation perfectly. While constantly paying homage to her husband and presenting herself as the guardian of his legacy, she has methodically removed anyone inside the Sandinista movement who might contest her succession or offer a political alternative.
The mass denationalizations that began in February 2023 fit this strategy of eliminating not only political opposition but even the legal existence of potential rivals. Hundreds of Nicaraguans, including me, have been arbitrarily deprived of our nationality. Many of us have been expelled from the country, had our property confiscated and been permanently prohibited from holding public office. The message is clear: Anyone capable of competing politically risks being transformed into a noncitizen.
The purges have extended beyond the traditional opposition. Even as Ms. Murillo saturates her speeches with references to God, Christ and the Virgin Mary, the regime has imprisoned or exiled priests and bishops who criticized its repression. The government has dismantled Catholic institutions, restricted religious activity and driven much of the church hierarchy from the country.
The crackdowns have also reached people who served the revolution and even those once close to the governing couple. The most revealing case may be that of Gen. Humberto Ortega, Mr. Ortega’s brother.
Humberto was one of the principal strategists of the insurrection against Anastasio Somoza Debayle and later headed the Sandinista Popular Army. In a May 2024 interview, he publicly questioned the possibility of a family succession. He argued that it would be extremely difficult for Ms. Murillo or Mr. Ortega’s children to retain power after Daniel’s death and insisted that a successor would need to emerge from an electoral process. Within hours, local media reported, the Nicaraguan police had seized his electronic devices and placed him under house arrest. He remained under constant guard until his death in a military hospital months later. Humberto’s fate signaled that no revolutionary credentials, no history of service and no proximity to Daniel Ortega would protect anyone who questioned Ms. Murillo’s succession.
Both Mr. Ortega and Ms. Murillo surely understand that they are at risk of being ousted as Somoza was nearly half a century ago. Ms. Murillo needs something more secure than a fraudulent election. She needs a system in which no authentic opponent may run, no unexpected political movement may emerge and no electoral result — even a manipulated one — can become a public judgment on her claim to inherit the country. Nicaragua’s democracy, which so many fought to secure for so long, dies with her determination to wear the presidential sash, no matter the cost.
Gioconda Belli is the former president of PEN Nicaragua. Her books include “The Country Under My Skin.”
Source photographs by AFP/Getty and Alfredo Zuniga.
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