KEY POINTS
- The NRS says Nigeria’s economy has moved from acute distress toward a stable, more resilient footing after Tinubu’s reforms.
- Oil output rose to 1.73 million barrels per day, tax collections doubled to N27.1 trillion, and reserves reached $51.9 billion.
- Debt-to-GDP fell to 32.3 percent in 2026, while food prices dropped about 50 percent by March 2026, the report said.
Nigeria’s economy is recovering strongly and growing faster after a wave of painful reforms under President Bola Tinubu, the Nigeria Revenue Service said in an internal report.
According to the report, the country moved decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing. The NRS said the administration inherited four major distortions: an unsustainable fuel subsidy, an opaque foreign exchange system, a weak oil sector and a tax base far below its potential.
Key indicators point up Nigeria economy recovery
The report said inflation is retreating, the balance of payments has improved, and oil output has climbed. Specifically, oil production rose from about 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million by July 2026, or 104 percent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota. Moreover, the naira-for-crude deal with Dangote Refinery and other local plants helped Nigeria become a net exporter of petroleum products after decades of imports.
Financial markets also strengthened, according to the NRS. It said the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange jumped from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026, while external reserves grew from $3.99 billion to $51.9 billion by July 2026. Furthermore, tax collections more than doubled from N12.3 trillion to N27.1 trillion, which the report credited to digitisation, new tax laws and a reformed revenue service.
Growth, debt and living costs
On the wider economy, the report said growth accelerated from 2.74 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in the first half of 2026, while the balance of payments swung from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter. In addition, annual capital importation rose from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025.
The NRS also flagged social gains. It said the minimum wage doubled between 2023 and 2026, out-of-school numbers fell from 20 million to 18.3 million on UNICEF estimates, and food prices dropped about 50 percent by March 2026, though it warned that farming needs several seasons to respond. Still, on debt, the report said the debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 38 percent in 2023 to 32.3 percent in 2026, even as the debt stock rose to N159.28 trillion.