California’s third-largest school district is bracing for another sharp drop in enrollment, with new projections showing Fresno Unified could lose students at one of the fastest rates in its recent history, according to a new report.
The enrollment analysis, prepared by consulting firm SchoolWorks for the district, projects Fresno Unified will lose a net 1,199 students during the 2026–27 school year — up from the 1,044 students it lost the previous year.
District officials have previously estimated enrollment will fall by roughly 4,000 students by the 2028–29 school year, according to local news outlet Fresnoland.
Over the past decade, Fresno Unified has already lost about 4,000 students. The latest projections suggest it could shed a similar number again over the next few years, with freshman and senior classes alone expected to shrink by roughly 600 students.
High schools are forecast to bear the brunt of the losses.
Roosevelt High School is projected to lose 132 students, followed by McLane High School with 90 and Fresno High School with 67. Meanwhile, the district’s largest enrollment gains are expected at elementary schools, led by Figarden Elementary, which is projected to add 32 students.
Paul Idsvoog, Fresno Unified’s chief of operations, said the projections were completed in late 2025 and are updated annually.
“We will have a better idea of actual enrollment for this year as we move from pre-reg to when school actually starts as kids continue to register into the school year,” Idsvoog said in an email.
According to Fresnoland, experts and district officials have pointed to declining birth rates, migration patterns and California’s rising cost of living as key drivers behind the continuing enrollment decline.
The shrinking student population has already contributed to significant financial challenges for the district, which has eliminated hundreds of jobs as it works to close a budget deficit projected at about $23 million.
Officials have also floated school and program consolidations as possible long-term solutions. Meanwhile, neighboring Clovis Unified has continued to grow, reaching a record enrollment of 43,254 students during the 2025–26 school year.
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