Andy Burnham passes his first test

Handily for Mr Burnham, his first electoral test was merely to replace himself. On July 30th, he passed with ease as his party cruised to victory in the by-election for a new mayor in his home region. His plans may be vague but Mr Burnham’s more optimistic vision for the country—a stark contrast to the misery associated with his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer—is paying early dividends. For the first time in over a year, Labour has drawn level with the populist-right Reform UK party in national polls. This week’s results also showed how the opposition parties are struggling to catch up with Britain’s new political reality.

Bev Craig, the Labour candidate, strolled to victory in Greater Manchester with 47% of first-preference votes, winning all ten of the city’s constituent boroughs. Reform and the Greens came a distant second and third, with 21% and 12% respectively. The far-right Restore Britain party won 9%, pushing the Conservatives into fifth place on 8%. Ms Craig’s win fell short of her mentor’s landslides: Mr Burnham was three times elected mayor with more than 60% of the vote. But it was a significant improvement on Labour’s showing in this May’s local elections (around 24%).

During those previous elections the two big populist parties—Reform on the right and the Greens on the left—won big. Both successfully argued that a vote for them was a vote to get rid of Sir Keir. Faced with a new and much more popular Labour leader, the populists have struggled this time. This week’s election was at least as much a test for them as it was for the new prime minister. Both sets of populists fell short of expectations.

Reform had asked campaigners in Greater Manchester to divert their attention to the Essex town of Clacton, where the party’s leader, Nigel Farage, has triggered a by-election in an attempt to shut down questions over some of the sources of his money; no other major party is standing and his closest rival is Count Binface, a novelty candidate. On a national level, the party’s response to Labour’s new leadership seems to be to double down on the issues of immigration and crime, arguing that Mr Burnham has no plan to reduce either. But if it is not continuing to make serious progress in the run-down towns near Manchester, it has little hope of taking power at the next general election. In Wigan, where Mr Burnham is an MP, Reform’s share fell from 46% in May’s local elections to 30% in this week’s mayoral race.

The Greens campaigned more vigorously for the mayoralty, but similarly resorted to playing their usual hits, such as calling on the government to declare the conflict in Gaza a “genocide”. Their candidate, Geraldine Coggins, said that swapping out Sir Keir for Mr Burnham would prove to be nothing more than “tinkering around the edges”. She hoped to expand the party’s standing in the city after its staggering by-election victory in Gorton and Denton, an inner-city constituency, in February. Ms Craig reportedly won back the equivalent area for Labour by a substantial margin.

Restore Britain was the only party aside from Labour that had a good result. Their 9% was the highest share for a British far-right candidate in any major election since 2010, when Nick Griffin managed 15% for British National Party in Barking, east London. Opinion polls currently put Restore at around 1-4% nationwide but the result in Manchester indicates that the party, led by a former Reform MP, Rupert Lowe, could become a significant electoral force.

How do you fight a problem like Andy?

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, both also-rans in Greater Manchester, are testing punchier messaging in their national communications as they prepare to take on Mr Burnham. The Tories have been polishing their economic credentials, with a new team of advisers on Treasury policy appointed this summer. The Liberal Democrats are talking more about the folly of Brexit, arguing for a much closer relationship with the EU.

The Greater Manchester contest also pointed to some other emerging dividing lines in British politics. Ms Craig, to her credit, wants to build 50,000 new homes; most other parties thundered against the idea. Such nimbyism has often proved a dismayingly potent force, and could hamper any efforts from Mr Burnham to juice housebuilding nationally. The mayoral by-election also brought some hints that the rows over artificial intelligence, which have consumed America, are crossing the Atlantic: for the Greens, Ms Coggins called for a slowdown in the technology’s roll-out. By contrast the Liberal Democrat candidate, Richard Kilpatrick, argued that the region should attract (rather than repel) data centres to boost its reputation as a tech hub. Mr Burnham has yet to take a stance.

There are early signs that the Burnham era could usher in a partial return to the two-party politics of the past: as well as Labour’s polling bounce, the Conservatives are doing better than they were at the start of this year while Reform and the Greens are in decline. But any declaration that the populists are now a busted flush would be premature. To see why, take Bury. The borough north of Manchester city centre, which includes an elegant market town with fine neoclassical buildings and surrounding villages set amid rolling hills, has for decades swung between Labour and the Tories. Bury backed Ms Craig for the mayoralty, but Reform picked up a respectable 23%—more than double the Conservative share—showing it cannot be written off yet.

Labour strategists once panicked at the prospect of a by-election in Greater Manchester, fearing humiliation if the party lost in one of its strongholds. For now, they look pretty safe: Mr Farage is bogged down in an electoral fight with a bin, the Greens have passed their polling peak, the Tories’ popularity lags behind that of their leader, Kemi Badenoch, and the Liberal Democrats have struggled to attract new voters. Labour MPs are mostly cock-a-hoop about their new leader—even as many admit that the change from Sir Keir to Mr Burnham has so far proven mostly cosmetic. As one minister puts it: “It’s the singer, not the song.”