President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs are drawing anger from trading partners and voters, but the leverage and revenue they offer could make it hard for future presidents to fully give them up.
A longtime advocate for a more protectionist trade agenda, Trump argues that his policies have unleashed a US economic boom, and when they haven’t, he says the duties are useful sticks in negotiations with trading partners. He continues to threaten more tariffs against allies like Canada, even though polling consistently shows that the tariffs are unpopular with voters, who are already frustrated with stubbornly high inflation.
Also Read | What is the US’ forced labour tariff and what it means for India?
But while criticism mounts globally and domestically, that doesn’t mean a future president would fully roll back Trump’s agenda, experts said, suggesting a Democrat could seek to make changes, to smooth relations with allies and ease the economic impact, without throwing them all out. For example, former President Joe Biden maintained — and in some cases expanded — the tariffs Trump implemented on China during his first term.
“I do think in general tariffs are going to be more sticky than a lot of people believe,” said Josh Lipsky, vice president and chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, who noted that the tariffs are part of broader trade deals and provide revenue. “I think the pull of this will be hard to get away from.”
The latest tariff action, a 10% or 12.5% duty on imports from most trading partners, took effect Friday. They’re based on allegations by the Trump administration that the targeted countries and economies failed to prevent forced labor in their supply chains, which several have said are baseless.
Trading partners see it as unlikely that the forced-labor levies are rolled back any time soon, according to an official from a European Union member country. It’s also doubtful whether there will be a return to the lower duty levels that preceded Trump, as the US disposition toward tariffs doesn’t change much between administrations, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Also Read | India lands at 10% under US forced-labour tariff, escapes steeper 12.5%
Revenue raising
The Tax Policy Center estimates that tariffs will raise about $1.7 trillion in the next 10 years, with $179 billion raised in 2026. The revenue will decline over time according to the TPC projection, as US buyers will gradually shift away from imports with high duties. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called this the “melting ice cube” theory of tariffs.
But tariffs are a Catch-22 when it comes to the deficit. The revenue they generated in 2025 and early 2026 did help to narrow the US budget gap before Trump’s ‘emergency’ tariffs were invalidated by the Supreme Court. But tariffs can also be a drag on economic growth, making it harder to reduce the deficit-to-GDP ratio.
The latest effort is also not as lucrative as the sweeping tariffs that were struck down, and which the administration is currently in the process of refunding. A new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says the current tariffs, including those announced this week, will replace less than 60% of the revenue lost by the ruling.
Even when Trump acknowledges they don’t work, he has offered tweaks to his tariffs rather than giving up on them wholesale.
Despite tariffs, the “primary aluminum, which is critical to the US economy and defense industrial base, is still in insufficient supply,” Trump said in a proclamation he signed on Monday. The policy change would halve duties on some aluminum imports in an effort to incentivize more smelting in the US.
Also Read | Where are Melania Trump, JD Vance and Marco Rubio? Why they are skipping today’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner
Midterm test
Heading into the midterm elections, Trump’s tariff agenda has been a major Democratic talking point as voters express anger over the cost of living. A YouGov survey of almost 9,700 US adults this week found 72% believed the president’s levies increased the prices they paid for goods.
Republicans are bracing for losses in the November midterm elections, given voter frustration over the economy and Trump’s leadership. The GOP is defending their majorities in Congress, with the narrowly divided House of Representatives particularly vulnerable.
The cost of living remains a key frustration for Americans. While data out earlier this month showed consumer prices fell amid lower gasoline prices in June, the cost of the fuel has headed back up since then and inflation remains elevated.
That economic focus is likely to continue in the 2028 presidential primary. Given that, a future Democratic president will likely face pressure to make changes to the tariffs, said Matt Bennett, co-founder of the moderate Democratic think tank Third Way.
“Whoever will become president will have spent two years arguing that Trump has raised prices intentionally and that’s going to be pretty hard to work back,” he said, noting that there will be pressure to “lift a tariff and bring down prices.”
Legal challenge
Trump is already facing legal pushback at home. Small businesses filed a pair of lawsuits in the US Court of International Trade on Friday, accusing the president and US officials of unlawfully using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to try to replace the earlier rounds of tariffs.
Generally, Section 301 tariffs “are on stronger legal ground,” despite legal challenge, trade historian and Dartmouth economics professor Douglas Irwin told Bloomberg TV. “It’s not clear that the courts will overturn them, so these tariffs are probably here to stay for some time.”
Wendy Cutler, senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said a new president who wanted to work with foreign allies may be “more sympathetic to try to find exit ramps with our allies and partners.” But she noted the challenge is that “we’re getting used to that revenue.”