After nearly two weeks of strikes on Iran, the Trump administration is planning to bank on a different weapon: economic pressure.
As Washington tries to push Tehran back to the negotiating table, senior US officials believe sanctions, financial restrictions and a naval blockade could ultimately inflict more damage on Iran than the bombing itself, Axios reported.
US President Donald Trump put a stop to strikes on Iran after 13 consecutive days. He said he wanted to give diplomacy another chance. On Monday, he claimed Iran sought talks on a possible deal, although they denied requesting direct negotiations, AP reported.
‘Iranians want money’: US
US officials say the real pressure is now coming from Iran’s worsening economic troubles. “The Iranians want to stop being bombed and they want money. But that’s almost in reverse order. They really want the money first,” a senior administration official told Axios.
Intelligence reports and public data suggest Iran is facing growing financial stress, including gasoline shortages despite being one of the world’s biggest oil producers, according to US officials.
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Officials also claim Tehran is struggling to finance its military and allied groups. “Intelligence is picking up that the Iranians are complaining they can’t pay their fighters,” a US official said. “Why? Because of the financial pressures. Because of Treasury. Because of what [Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent is doing.”
“They’re in danger of runs on banks. There are gasoline shortages in this giant oil-rich country,” the official added. “They’re more scared of Treasury than the War Department.”
The Trump administration says it has sanctioned more than 1,000 individuals, ships and aircraft as part of its new “maximum pressure” campaign targeting Iran’s oil exports, banking network, shipping industry and weapons procurement. US officials also claim that during earlier negotiations, Iranian representatives repeatedly raised access to frozen funds and sanctions relief as top priorities.
“They’re begging Steve [Witkoff] and Jared [Kushner] for cash. They’re desperate for it,” one of the officials claimed to Axios.
Trump said he halted the bombing to allow diplomacy to progress. “The overall stockpiles aren’t depleted or at zero,” the official said. “When you have to consider pulling from stockpiles around the world, that comes with risks, and you have to present that to the commander in chief. He decides. He’s the decider.”
Trump also insisted the US continues to have sufficient military resources. “I have a lot of patience,” Trump told reporters.
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Will this approach work?
Iran reportedly earned an estimated $23 billion in oil revenue during the first half of the year. Brett Erickson, an analyst with Obsidian Risk Advisors, said that sanctions are unlikely to deliver the desired outcome. He called it “fairly hilarious.”
“More sanctions? On Iran? Look at what Treasury and OFAC have done over the last two weeks the conflict has resumed. They’ve barely released ANY new sanctions, and the only notable one targeted the Shamkhani network that Iran had obviously built redundancies….There’s nothing really LEFT to sanction at this point that would make a difference. That’s been the case for months now. The BLOCKADE you can certainly argue for, but given we just let 80M barrels of oil waltz through the blockade line during the 27 days of the MOU… good luck.” Erickson wrote on X.
“Economic warfare is a fundamentally broken approach to the Iran War,” he added. “You’re telling me our strategy to make the Iranian people rise up and topple the regime was to kill a bunch of them, make them suffer, make their economic pain even worse… And then they’ll take OUR side? We just made their lives worse for NOTHING.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump still preferred diplomacy but military options remain available if Iran continued attacks or threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“Combined with successful sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy and 13 straight days of strikes against military targets in response to their repeated aggression, it would be wise for Iran to work toward a negotiated deal,” she said. “Otherwise, they know what will happen.”
Diplomacy amid fragile pause
Indirect negotiations continue through mediators including Oman, Qatar and Pakistan. One proposal under discussion involves the management of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes, Reuters reported.
The reported plan could give Iran and Oman a role in managing maritime traffic and potentially generate revenue through shipping arrangements.
That said, major differences remain. Iran is seeking guarantees against future US attacks, along with sanctions relief and access to frozen assets.
Trump is insisting Tehran give up its remaining nuclear material and is reluctant to ease economic pressure without major concessions.
“Some of the Iranians want this. Others don’t. That’s part of the issue,” the senior administration official told Axios.
Iran has publicly denied asking for direct talks with Washington, saying mediators may pass messages but no formal negotiations have been requested.