Economy
Renowned economist and development strategist, Prof. Ken Ife, has called for a fundamental restructuring of Nigeria’s economy, urging the country to adopt an export-led industrialisation strategy anchored on value addition, regional economic development and private sector investment to attain a one trillion-dollar economy.
Ife made the call while presenting a strategic framework for Nigeria’s Medium-Term National Development Plan, where he outlined the reforms needed to reposition the economy for sustainable growth.
Realnews Magazine reports that the presentation was made at the quarterly NEPAD Business Group Webinar held on Tuesday, July 14, 2026.
He said Nigeria’s economic vulnerabilities had been exposed by repeated global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, fluctuations in crude oil prices, global financial crises, trade disruptions and climate change.
According to him, these external shocks have translated into imported inflation, persistent foreign exchange pressures, rising production costs and declining purchasing power.
He noted that while recent macroeconomic reforms had contributed to improved foreign exchange stability and moderated inflationary pressures, the country still faced high interest rates, elevated energy costs, expensive credit, unemployment and deepening poverty.
The economist said Nigeria could no longer rely on exporting raw materials if it hoped to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
He argued that countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia had lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty through export-led industrialisation built on value addition and manufacturing.
“If Nigeria continues exporting crude oil, agricultural commodities and solid minerals in their raw form, we are exporting jobs and importing poverty,” he said.
According to him, exporting raw materials limits national earnings, increases dependence on imports, weakens the naira and forces government to accumulate unsustainable debt to finance finished products.
Ife urged Nigeria to establish integrated value chains that transform raw materials into intermediate and finished products for both domestic consumption and export.
He advocated large-scale investments in agro-processing, petrochemicals, steel, solid minerals, manufacturing and downstream industries to drive industrial growth.
The professor stressed that government policies should shift from isolated sectoral interventions to integrated industrial clusters capable of stimulating broad-based economic development.
He proposed the establishment of agro-industrial processing hubs covering cassava, palm oil, fisheries, shea butter, ethanol and biofuels, alongside integrated mineral processing centres for gold, iron ore, aluminium, zinc and other strategic minerals.
According to him, Nigeria should stop exporting unprocessed minerals and instead develop local refining capacity to maximise value addition and create jobs.
He also called for greater investment in petrochemical industries, saying products such as benzene, ethylene, polyethylene, ammonia and urea could support hundreds of downstream manufacturing enterprises.
Ife disclosed that ongoing reforms were strengthening government revenue through improved tax administration, enhanced forensic auditing of revenue-generating agencies and direct remittance of revenues into government accounts.
He said these measures would significantly improve public finances and increase resources available for development.
The economist revealed that government was reviewing key macroeconomic assumptions under the Medium-Term Development Plan, including inflation, exchange rates, crude oil production and investment projections.
He advocated reducing inflation to about eight per cent over the medium term while lowering the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Rate in line with declining inflation to support private sector investment.
He also recommended more ambitious crude oil production targets of between 2.5 million and three million barrels per day, saying Nigeria should fully exploit its production potential.
On exchange rate management, Ife urged policymakers to adopt more realistic projections capable of restoring confidence and supporting long-term planning.
He disclosed that the proposed development framework targets cumulative investments of about 1.74 trillion dollars by 2030, with approximately 81 per cent expected from the private sector.
According to him, government should concentrate on creating an enabling environment while private investors provide the bulk of financing required for economic expansion.
He said a major feature of the new development framework was a shift from centrally driven economic planning to a regional development model in which states become active drivers of economic growth.
“The future lies in sub-national economic development. Every state must build on its comparative advantage while the Federal Government provides coordination and addresses national and external risks,” he said.
He explained that the regional approach would promote stronger collaboration among the federal, state and local governments while improving infrastructure, logistics, investment coordination and access to finance.
The professor described Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) as indispensable for bridging Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit.
He said properly structured PPPs would mobilise private capital, improve project bankability and reduce pressure on public finances.
Ife further proposed the creation of industrial ecosystems around refineries, gas projects and major infrastructure corridors using Special Purpose Vehicles to attract long-term financing.
According to him, Nigeria’s growing banking sector, capital market and fintech ecosystem should be leveraged to finance productive sectors of the economy.
He said commercial banks and financial technology companies must work together to deepen financial inclusion, expand access to digital payments and provide affordable financing for small businesses and informal traders.
The economist identified six strategic growth pathways capable of transforming the economy, including financial services, export-led industrialisation, innovation, knowledge economy, digital technology, circular bioeconomy and regional industrial corridors.
He urged stronger collaboration among universities, research institutes, polytechnics and industry to commercialise research and accelerate innovation.
According to him, Nigeria must move from research laboratories to market-driven production by building innovation ecosystems that support manufacturing and technology development.
He also emphasised the importance of digital skills development and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, robotics and virtual reality in improving national productivity.
On environmental sustainability, Ife advocated a circular bioeconomy in which agricultural and industrial waste would be converted into energy, fertiliser and other productive inputs.
He said integrated bio-based industries could generate significant value through renewable energy, biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel and waste recycling.
Drawing lessons from Europe, he said bioeconomy industries covering agriculture, food processing, forestry, chemicals and manufacturing had become major contributors to economic growth.
He also recommended expanding Free Trade Zones and Special Economic Zones, noting that China used such industrial enclaves as the foundation for its rapid industrial transformation.
According to him, Nigeria must also strengthen regional trade by developing economic corridors capable of unlocking investment and improving connectivity across the country.
Ife said fiscal policy, monetary policy, trade policy and industrial policy must work in harmony to reduce import dependence, encourage exports and build globally competitive industries.
He maintained that with coordinated reforms, strong institutions and sustained implementation, Nigeria possessed the resources, market size and human capital needed to achieve its ambition of becoming a one trillion-dollar economy.
F.O
Tags: Export-les industrialisation One trillion dollars economy Prof. Ken Ife