The Fourth of July holiday brought two box office fumbles, but not all missteps are created equal.
We’ll start with “Minions & Monsters,” which grossed $61 million over the five-day holiday. That’s the lowest opening weekend for the entire “Despicable Me” franchise and half of what “Minions: The Rise of Gru” grossed in 2022 over the Fourth of July, where it scored $123 million.
The slippage for Universal and Illumination is a bit of a head scratcher. The film, a reinvention of sorts of the franchise and a love letter to moviemaking (it’s set in Hollywood during the transition from talkies to sound), scored the best reviews of the series, but audiences were less enthusiastic than they historically are for this animated franchise. It got an A- on CinemaScore (A for previous films), 76% audience Rotten Tomatoes score (“Rise of Gru” got 89%) and a 58% definite recommend on PostTrak (the last film had a 71% definite recommend).
Perhaps the promise of a sci-fi monster movie set in classic Hollywood was a departure too far for a franchise that usually leans on spy and action tropes and a bevy of popular music. Anecdotally, I can only say my four-year-old loved it (although he is a sci-fi/monster movie kid so this was right up his alley) and as a parent I appreciated the leveling-up in storytelling from Illumination.
It’s possible this franchise suffered from overexposure. There have been seven “Despicable Me” or “Minions” movies in 16 years, whereas the “Toy Story” franchise — which released five movies in 30 years — has leveraged the wait between releases for maximum nostalgia.
But “Minions & Monsters” will be fine. The $85 million budget ensures this will be a profitable endeavor. It’s off to a solid start internationally (nearly $100 million this weekend) and it’s likely to leg out fine with enthusiasm iffy on Disney’s live-action “Moana” coming next weekend. Universal is also the master at navigating post-theatrical windows to maximize profit: The movie will be a hit on PVOD, then it’ll get a splashy streaming launch on Peacock before eventually streaming on Netflix, where it will probably be one of the most-watched titles on the mega-streamer that year.
A studio source projected confidence in the box office performance of “Minions & Monsters,” but it does underline another issue that’s vital to the major animation studios right now: they desperately need new IP. Pixar got a hit with “Hoppers” earlier this year, while Illumination has “Not Alone” upcoming, but as these studios’ most successful franchises get long in the tooth, it’s vital for them to create new hits. Perhaps that’s the biggest lesson from the opening weekend of “Minions & Monsters.”
The other box office blunder this weekend, “Supergirl,” is bad news all around. After an underwhelming $38 million launch last weekend on the heels of poor reviews, the film tumbled 74% in its second weekend. That’s worse than Sony’s disastrous Marvel movie “Morbius” in 2022 and fellow DC misstep “The Flash” in 2023.
“Supergirl” is now on track to end its worldwide gross below the $169 million of “Wonder Woman 1984,” which hit theaters in late 2020 during COVID. And it’s only the second film in James Gunn and Peter Safran’s overarching strategy for a renewed DC Films.
As we wrote about last week, the stakes for this fall’s DC film “Clayface” are high.
Now, on to the rest of this week’s Reel to Real column as we tackle a piping hot “Heat 2” exclusive, a shakeup at the Academy, Illumination’s creative pivot and more in this week’s newsletter.
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Box Office: ‘Minions’ Slips to $61 Million 4th of July Launch, ‘Supergirl’ Tumbles 74%
Universal/Illumination’s “Minions & Monsters” won’t be as big of a box office hit as past “Despicable Me” and “Minions” films, as the impact of America 250 and somewhat lower audience scores have left the seventh film in the franchise with a $61 million five-day domestic box office opening, the lowest in the series.
That’s well below the $123 million four-day opening that “Minions: The Rise of Gru” earned on Fourth of July weekend in 2022 en route to a $940 million global theatrical total.
To be clear, “Minions & Monsters” will still be a theatrical hit for Universal, as the movie has a budget of just $85 million before marketing and has also earned $98 million overseas for an estimated $160 million total worldwide through Sunday. This July 4th also had a unique impact on moviegoing, as millions of Americans opted to spend the historic 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence’s signing outside rather than in a dark theater.
But it does take a blow to the expectation that “Minions 3” would be able to coexist easily alongside the wildly popular and audience-acclaimed “Toy Story 5.”
Speaking of “Toy Story 5,” that Disney/Pixar sequel has steamed past $350 million domestic and $750 million worldwide, posting a 3-day total of $31 million in its third weekend for a $366 million domestic total and $764 million globally. It is well on its way to passing “Michael” as the highest-grossing film of the year so far, which would also make it the highest-grossing “Toy Story” film before inflation adjustment.
In third is Angel and Wonder Project’s “Young Washington,” a Fourth of July-timed offering about the future revolutionary general and first American president during his days as a British soldier. Directed by Jon Erwin, the film earned a $20.8 million opening weekend from 2,700 theaters, sitting just behind Angel’s $22 million studio opening record held by the animated film “David.”
In fourth is Warner Bros./DC’s rapidly sinking “Supergirl,” which industry estimates have falling 74% from its poor $37.1 million opening to a second weekend total of just $9.6 million. At its current pace with a global total of $100 million, the superhero film is now on pace to finish with a global cume below the $169 million of “Wonder Woman 1984,” a movie released at the end of 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. – Jeremy Fuster
The Spotlight
We kicked off the holiday weekend with a pretty monster scoop courtesy of Drew Taylor: “Heat 2” is on the move. Leonardo DiCaprio and Christian Bale are set to star in writer/director Michael Mann’s $170 million sequel, filling the roles played by Val Kilmer and Al Pacino in Mann’s seminal 1995 film, respectively. Adam Driver and Stephen Graham are in talks for other major roles as Mann eyes a November start date for the Amazon MGM Studios/United Artists film. And that’s not even all the details we’ve got on the movie. Read the full story here.
New Releases
A New Vision at the Academy: As the Oscars move toward YouTube, AMPAS’s Chief Oscars Officer exits. What else does the Academy have to shed?
Box Office Bonanza: As the box office continues to be on fire, Jeremy Fuster spoke to theater owners about what they’re doing with the extra cash.
Illumination Turns the Page: CEO Chris Meledandri spoke to Drew Taylor about why “Minions & Monsters” is the beginning of a new era for the animation powerhouse.
Robert Richardson Speaks: Legendary cinematographer Robert Richardson spoke with us about his career and desire to work with PTA at Karlovy Vary.
Jesse Eisenberg Gets Musical: Also from Karlovy Vary, Jesse Eisenberg talked about writing nine original songs for his new A24 film “The Debut.”
Concession Stand
Neon rescues Luca Guadagnino’s “Artificial,” will mount awards push.
Steven Spielberg, United Artists and Amazon MGM nabbed the next YouTube horror sensation.
Not to be outdone, Warner Bros. is mounting an adaptation of internet horror meme “Siren Head” to be written by Zach Cregger and Brian Duffield and directed by Duffield.
Sony will release the Tom Hanks-starring, Marielle Heller-directed baseball movie “The Comebacker” in July 2027.
Josh Brolin was so freaked out by Ridley Scott’s method of shooting with several cameras, few takes and no rehearsals that he almost quit “The Dog Stars.”
Streaming Corner
- Netflix has a rom-com streaming hit. “Voicemails for Isabelle,” starring Zoey Deutch and Nick Robinson, notched 31 million views during its first weekend in release. That’s a solid debut for the original film from writer/director Leah McKendrick.
What I’m Watching
Is anyone else watching “The Agency” on Paramount+? Am I just “Dad TV”-pilled or is it quietly one of the best shows on TV? I could watch Michael Fassbender, Jeffrey Wright and Richard Gere as CIA flacks talking spycraft forever. I need eight seasons of this. If you long for a show like “Homeland” or “The Americans,” check this out.