A new policy report has challenged widespread claims that President Bola Tinubu has borrowed more than any other Nigerian leader since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999, arguing that much of the increase in Nigeria’s debt profile under the current administration stems from exchange rate revaluation and accounting adjustments rather than unprecedented new borrowing.
The report, titled “Who Borrowed Most? Nigeria’s Presidential Debt Record 1999–2025,” was released by Think Business Africa, a policy and economic research organisation.
It contends that public discourse surrounding Nigeria’s debt accumulation has often failed to distinguish between actual borrowing and debt increases resulting from macroeconomic reforms.
According to the report, available debt data does not support assertions that the Tinubu administration has borrowed more than all previous democratic governments combined.
Think Business Africa noted that Nigeria’s external debt stock stood at approximately $42.5 billion when President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. By December 2025, the country’s external debt had risen to about $51.9 billion, representing a net increase of roughly $9.4 billion over the period.
The report contrasted this with the debt record under former President Muhammadu Buhari, during whose administration Nigeria’s external debt reportedly increased from about $10.3 billion in 2015 to approximately $42.9 billion by 2023, representing a net increase of about $32.6 billion.
Researchers argued that comparisons based solely on naira-denominated debt figures often present a distorted picture because Nigeria’s external obligations are contracted and serviced primarily in foreign currencies.
According to the report, the sharp depreciation of the naira following the foreign exchange market reforms introduced in June 2023 significantly increased the local currency value of existing external debt without necessarily reflecting equivalent new borrowing.
The report explained that the inherited external debt stock of approximately $42.5 billion, which had previously been valued at around N19.6 trillion under the former exchange rate regime, appeared substantially larger in naira terms after the currency adjustment.
As a result, Nigeria’s overall debt stock expanded significantly when measured in local currency, even though the underlying foreign currency obligations remained largely unchanged.
The report further revealed that former President Olusegun Obasanjo remains the only democratically elected Nigerian leader to have substantially reduced the country’s external debt burden.
READ ALSO: 2027: Babachir Lawal backs Tinubu over Atiku, says he remains ‘safer option’
According to Think Business Africa, Nigeria’s external debt declined by approximately $25.9 billion during Obasanjo’s tenure between 1999 and 2007, largely due to debt relief negotiations and repayment efforts.
The researchers stressed that evaluating debt performance requires examining debt levels in foreign currency terms rather than relying exclusively on naira-denominated figures, which are heavily influenced by exchange rate fluctuations.
The report also highlighted the effect of the securitisation of approximately N23.9 trillion in Ways and Means advances accumulated under previous administrations.
According to Think Business Africa, this accounting adjustment significantly increased the recorded domestic debt stock under the current administration, despite the obligations having existed before President Tinubu assumed office.
The report argued that once exchange rate effects and legacy debt restructuring are isolated, actual new borrowing under the current administration appears materially lower than headline debt figures suggest.
Researchers further noted that domestic debt measured in dollar terms declined by approximately $6.5 billion between the first quarter of 2023 and the end of 2025, while Nigeria’s total public debt increased by only about $2.7 billion in dollar terms during the same period.
While defending the need for greater context in debt discussions, Think Business Africa cautioned that Nigeria’s debt burden remains a significant fiscal challenge.
The report identified rising debt servicing obligations as a more pressing concern than the absolute size of the debt stock, warning that increasing debt repayments continue to limit government spending on infrastructure, healthcare, education and other critical sectors.
According to the researchers, the sustainability of Nigeria’s public finances will depend not only on borrowing levels but also on the government’s ability to grow revenue, improve fiscal discipline and ensure that borrowed funds are deployed to productive investments capable of generating economic returns.
Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) showed that Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N87.38 trillion as of June 30, 2023, shortly after President Tinubu assumed office.
By December 31, 2025, total public debt had increased to N159.28 trillion, reflecting a combination of fresh borrowing, exchange rate adjustments and the securitisation of legacy obligations.
However, Think Business Africa insists that a comprehensive assessment of Nigeria’s debt trajectory must separate actual borrowing from valuation changes caused by economic reforms, arguing that failure to do so risks creating a misleading narrative about the country’s fiscal position.