For decades, the Persian Gulf’s energy map converged on a single chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz. Now, spurred by the Iran war, the region’s petrostates are rushing to draw new lines to circumvent it.
Across the Gulf, governments are pouring billions into new oil pipelines, rail corridors and energy storage hubs to bypass the waterway in what is set to become one of the most durable outcomes of the conflict. The new energy links are part of a broader redrawing of the region’s logistics map, shifting trade toward trucking, rail and new ports.
“The legacy of the crisis will result in the construction of infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz,” said Hamad Hussain, commodities economist at London-based research firm Capital Economics. “The genie is out of the bottle given that the longstanding threat of Iran effectively closing the strait has now materialized.”
Even if Washington and Tehran reach a deal to reopen the strait and maritime exports resume, the shift toward an export network with multiple exits will endure because the conflict has proved that robust contingency plans are essential, officials and analysts say. Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil via a previously underused fallback pipeline demonstrated the strategic value of a backup, while in recent weeks the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have launched plans to expand pipelines of their own.
The stakes extend far beyond the Gulf. Bypassing a waterway that once moved a fifth of the world’s oil will reshape how securely energy reaches all corners of the globe.
The conflict showed “too much of the world’s energy still moves through too few chokepoints,” said Sultan Al Jaber, the U.A.E.’s minister of industry and advanced technology, at a recent Atlantic Council forum. That was now driving Abu Dhabi’s accelerated plans to sidestep Hormuz, he added.
“Energy security is no longer just about your ability to continue to produce,” said Al Jaber, who is also the head of state-owned oil giant Adnoc. “It is about routes, access, storage and redundancy.”
The strait remains the most economical export route and will likely see renewed use once it reopens, analysts say. Bypassing it takes time, money and delicate cross-border diplomacy. Iraq’s proposed new routes, for example, would require not just new pipelines, but agreements with Jordan, Syria or Turkey over security, transit and export rights.
But building alternatives neutralizes the strait as a weapon, said Robin Mills, chief executive of Dubai-based consulting firm Qamar Energy.
“Once you have the bypass, then you diminish the threat of further closure,” he said. “You get to the point where it’d be pointless to the Iranians to close it because they wouldn’t be interrupting anything and they’d just be cutting themselves off.”
The shift toward alternative routes is already visible on the ground.
Saudi Arabia is now running its East-West pipeline at full capacity—around 7 million barrels a day—up from roughly 2 million barrels a day before the war. The link was commissioned during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, which saw attacks on ships in the strait.
Mills said that, while the pipeline could be expanded further, Saudi Arabia also needs to upgrade export-handling facilities, such as storage tanks and loading pumps, at the Red Sea port of Yanbu to handle the larger flow.
The U.A.E. was able to reroute some of its oil exports via a pipeline to Fujairah, a strategic port city outside the Strait of Hormuz. In May, Abu Dhabi said it would accelerate plans for a second pipeline along the route that would double that export capacity by 2027.
The pipeline holds deeper significance for the U.A.E. following its exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last month, a move driven partly by its ambition to pump more oil free from the cartel’s quotas. Beyond circumventing the strait, the route allows Abu Dhabi to expand its exports as it challenges Saudi Arabia’s position as the region’s dominant oil player.
The Emiratis are also leaning on their trading network and storage strategy. Adnoc’s Al Jaber said the company had secured additional supplies for Asian customers and was expanding and restocking oil storage to protect against future shocks.
Oman, meanwhile, is capitalizing on its geography by marketing its ports in the Gulf of Oman—beyond the Strait of Hormuz—as oil storage and export hubs.
Gulf nations are also discussing accelerating a long-planned railroad project connecting countries in the region. Such a rail line would offer another way to move fuel and commodities away from the strait, according to Capital Economics, though rail can only handle smaller quantities of oil than pipelines or ships.
To be sure, escaping Hormuz is far from simple.
Inland pipelines remain vulnerable to drone attacks: Iranian drones struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline in April, and Tehran targeted the U.A.E.’s Fujairah oil hub last month. Some critical exports—such as liquefied natural gas—can only move by ship. And building new pipelines is a multiyear, multibillion-dollar undertaking that requires not just steel and engineering, but land rights, security, financing and diplomatic agreements.
Still, the political will in the region to make these long-term investments is hardening, said Cinzia Bianco, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“When the Saudis and the Emiratis first made investments into pipelines bypassing Hormuz, people told them it’s crazy expensive and it’s not really needed,” Bianco said. “But then it turned out to be very much worth it.”
Write to Georgi Kantchev at [email protected]