Nigeria recorded a strong external trade performance in the first quarter of 2026, with its merchandise trade surplus surging to N7.55 trillion, representing a 340.88 per cent increase from N1.71 trillion in the preceding quarter.
Fresh data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that the expansion was driven by higher crude oil earnings, stronger non-oil export contributions, and a significant decline in import expenditure, particularly on petroleum products.
Total merchandise trade during the period stood at N34.79 trillion, with exports accounting for more than 60 per cent of total trade value, significantly outpacing imports and reinforcing Nigeria’s improved external balance at the start of the year.
According to the NBS, total exports rose to N21.17 trillion in Q1 2026, representing 60.85 per cent of total trade.
This reflects a 2.77 per cent increase compared to N20.60 trillion recorded in Q1 2025 and an 11.63 per cent rise from N18.96 trillion in Q4 2025.
Crude oil remained Nigeria’s dominant export commodity, generating N11.20 trillion and accounting for 52.92 per cent of total exports.
However, non-crude exports also recorded strong performance, contributing N9.97 trillion, including N3.19 trillion from non-oil products—an indication of gradual diversification in the export base.
By category, mineral products dominated exports at N18.16 trillion, followed by chemical products at N1.39 trillion and prepared foodstuffs, beverages, and related goods at N745.74 billion.
On the import side, Nigeria recorded a notable contraction as total imports fell to N13.62 trillion, representing 39.15 per cent of total trade.
This marked an 18.17 per cent decline from N16.64 trillion in Q1 2025 and a sharper 21.05 per cent drop compared to N17.25 trillion in Q4 2025.
The reduction in imports was largely driven by lower demand for foreign goods, especially refined petroleum products, as well as tighter foreign exchange conditions and ongoing import substitution policies.
Machinery and transport equipment remained the largest import category at N5.01 trillion, followed by mineral fuels at N2.65 trillion and chemicals at N2.02 trillion.
Regionally, Asia remained Nigeria’s largest source of imports, supplying goods worth N7.55 trillion, or 55.45 per cent of total imports.
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China retained its position as Nigeria’s biggest import partner, accounting for N5.10 trillion in goods.
On the export side, Europe emerged as Nigeria’s largest market, receiving goods worth N7.93 trillion, followed by Asia at N6.42 trillion.
India was Nigeria’s largest export destination with N2.77 trillion worth of imports from Nigeria, followed by France, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United States.
Nigeria also maintained a strong trade surplus within Africa, exporting N4.06 trillion worth of goods while importing only N654.94 billion.
The widening gap between exports and imports pushed Nigeria’s trade surplus to N7.55 trillion, one of the strongest quarterly performances in recent years.
Economists say the surge reflects both stronger export earnings and a compression in import demand, with implications for foreign exchange stability and external reserves.
Economic analysts say the strong trade surplus reflects a combination of favourable oil market conditions and structural import compression.
According to trade economist, Dr. Bismarck Rewane, the surge in surplus is largely driven by Nigeria’s reliance on crude oil exports, which continue to dominate foreign exchange earnings.
He noted that while the widening surplus supports external stability, it also highlights the economy’s vulnerability to global oil price fluctuations.
“Any improvement in the trade balance is positive for reserves and exchange rate stability, but the underlying dependence on crude oil remains a structural risk,” he said.
Another economist, Prof. Ngozi Okonjo, explained that the sharp decline in imports may provide short-term relief to the foreign exchange market but could also signal constrained industrial activity.
She warned that excessive import compression could affect manufacturing output, particularly in sectors dependent on imported machinery and raw materials.
Trade policy expert, Dr. Muda Yusuf, described the figures as a reflection of Nigeria’s ongoing import substitution drive, but stressed the need for stronger domestic production capacity.
He said improving infrastructure, energy supply, and access to credit would be critical to sustaining export growth and reducing import dependency.