After 18 hours of intensive negotiations, Iranian and US representatives left Switzerland with a 60-day roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement. The talks had nearly collapsed earlier after US President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran and warned of taking control of the Strait of Hormuz if no deal was reached. However, mediators Pakistan and Qatar later reported encouraging progress, while tanker traffic through the strategic waterway rebounded.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, former diplomat Veena Sikri said the Lebanon issue remains the most serious threat to the success of the negotiations.
“The Lebanon issue is what is going to make Iran walk out of the talks unless it is brought to a satisfactory resolution,” Sikri said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has already described the Lebanon de-confliction mechanism as the first real test of the agreement. Under the emerging framework, a de-confliction cell involving Iran, the United States and Lebanon will work towards ending military operations linked to the conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Sikri noted that while progress had been reported on several issues, including the release of some frozen Iranian assets, sanctions relief and reconstruction plans, Lebanon continued to stand out as a potential deal-breaker.
“Other than that, I think, as the Foreign Minister of Iran, Araghchi, has said, there has been considerable progress,” she said. “But Lebanon, I see coming up again and again as a critical deal breaker.”
She also pointed out that Israel is not formally part of the de-confliction mechanism, despite being central to the conflict.
“There is a de-confliction cell… which has the US, Iran, and Lebanon,” Sikri said. “But Israel is not there in the de-confliction cell.”
According to Sikri, Iran is likely to remain uncompromising on Lebanon even if it shows flexibility elsewhere. She said the withdrawal of the US naval presence, the reopening of trade routes and the resumption of Iranian oil exports appeared to be moving in the right direction, although risks remain.
Iranian negotiators have sought implementation of key measures, including ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, easing restrictions on oil exports and restoring access to frozen funds. Sikri said most of these objectives appeared achievable, but warned that any disruption to shipping in Hormuz or delays in withdrawing military pressure could quickly reignite tensions.
While Lebanon emerged as the principal sticking point, former Foreign Secretary Shashank credited US Vice President JD Vance with helping prevent the negotiations from derailing.
“I think JD Vance was able to bring the hotheads to a more peaceful kind of situation,” Shashank told CNBC-TV18.
He said the talks were taking place at a delicate moment for the region and welcomed efforts to establish channels of communication between rival parties.
“This de-confliction mechanism, whatever they call it, is important because at least people are trying to talk to each other directly and indirectly,” he said.
Shashank argued that Israel’s absence from the de-confliction cell may actually help the process move forward. He said Israeli leaders have already made their position clear regarding Hezbollah and that indirect engagement through the United States could prove more effective at this stage.
“It is just as well that Israel is not there,” he said, adding that negotiations involving Lebanon and Israel were continuing through other channels.
The former Foreign Secretary also expressed cautious optimism about movement on the nuclear issue after JD Vance indicated that international experts would visit Iran’s facilities.
Shashank noted that Iran had largely complied with the terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement before the United States withdrew from it under Trump’s first administration.
“If things are moving well towards a peaceful resolution and an agreement, then things on the nuclear issue should also move well,” he said.
The comments come as diplomatic efforts gather momentum following the Swiss talks. Iran says sanctions on its oil exports have been waived, some frozen assets have been released and a high-level committee has been established to oversee implementation of the roadmap. A direct communication channel for the Strait of Hormuz is also being created.
However, with fighting still continuing in Lebanon and tensions persisting between Israel and Hezbollah, diplomats and negotiators agree that the success of the new de-confliction mechanism will determine whether the broader Iran-US rapprochement can survive the next 60 days.
Watch the full conversation here