The culprit driving costs higher is unmistakably the tomato. Prices surged 57% to ₹36 per kg from ₹23 per kg in May 2025, following a 3-4% decline in rabi production in the southern states, compounded by lower summer crop acreage and heat-damaged yields.
“The cost of home-cooked vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis increased 5% and 7% on-year, respectively, in May, driven by higher prices of tomatoes, vegetable oil and liquefied petroleum gas,” said Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence.
On a month-on-month basis, tomato prices climbed a further 23% in May alone, adding to the squeeze on household budgets already strained by persistently elevated energy costs.
Global pressures compound domestic woes
Beyond tomatoes, ongoing global supply disruptions have kept vegetable oil and LPG cylinder prices elevated, up 8% and 7% on-year, respectively. Together, these three ingredients form the backbone of the cost increase, offsetting meaningful relief elsewhere in the basket.
Onion prices fell 6% on-year following fresh rabi arrivals, whilst potato prices declined 14% on-year on account of a 2-3% rise in rabi production and the liquidation of cold storage supplies. Pulse prices eased 2% on-year, aided by duty-free imports of toor dal permitted until March 2027.
For non-vegetarian households, the pain was sharper. Broiler chicken prices, which account for roughly half the cost of a non-veg thali, rose an estimated 9% on-year, as intense summer heat drove up bird mortality among poultry flocks, squeezing supply.
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“Intense summer heat caused bird mortality among poultry to spike, squeezing supply and pushing up prices. Elevated tomato, vegetable oil and LPG prices also contributed to the uptick in the non-veg thali cost,” the report noted.
Month-on-month, both veg and non-veg thali costs rose 3% in May, with potato and onion prices also ticking up 3% and 2%, respectively.
Tomato prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term given sustained supply-side pressures. The RRR is published monthly by Crisil Intelligence, a unit of S&P Global.