There has been a subtle change in the way the Federation of International Football Associations (FIFA) is determining league tables for the 2026 World Cup – and it might have a huge impact on the final group matches.
For the first time at a World Cup, FIFA has decided to use head-to-head records instead of group goal difference as the primary tiebreaker for teams level on points.
Until 1966, goal ratio was used to separate teams – this involved dividing a team’s goals scored by goals conceded. In 1970, FIFA moved to goal difference – until now.
With the adjustment, FIFA now operates in line with the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), which has always given priority to the results between teams.
The logic is that assessing the direct performance of two teams is fairer, because it removes freak results – such as Germany’s 7-1 win over Curacao.
Others say that taking the overall goal difference is better as it compares the total record in the group.
FIFA first introduced it at last year’s Club World Cup, where Flamengo won Group D ahead of eventual tournament winners Chelsea after two matches.
The main knock-on effect is a greater chance of teams not only advancing but winning the group before matchday three.
Under the old format, a team would need to be four points clear of second to lock the top spot after two games.
That was rare because it required the other two fixtures of the first two rounds in the group to both be draws.
With the new development, it is possible to be three points clear on the table and get first place in the bag.
It can happen a few ways. It requires either two draws, or first place to have beaten the team(s) on three points. We have already seen it in Group A.
Mexico won their first two games and sit on six points – three points clear of South Korea, with the Czech Republic and South Africa on one point.
As Mexico has already beaten South Korea they cannot be overtaken if both countries end on six points. So Mexico have won the group.
They know they will play a last-32 tie in Mexico City against a third-placed team.
But there’s a knock-on effect, Mexico effectively have nothing to play for when they meet the Czech Republic next Wednesday, and could opt to rest players.
And that creates an imbalance the Czech Republic could benefit from, though they can only qualify automatically if South Korea lose to South Africa.
But in a tournament where the best third-placed teams go through, it could be important.
The system is also used at the European Championship, where the best third-placed teams advanced.