Can Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz again? What US intelligence fears after latest conflict
Fresh US intelligence assessments have raised new concerns about Iran’s ability to disrupt global trade by shutting down the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz again following the recent conflict in the Middle East.
According to CNN, multiple US intelligence sources now believe Iran has demonstrated it can effectively close access to the waterway “at will,” giving Tehran powerful leverage over the global economy and energy markets going forward.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints, with a significant portion of global oil and gas exports passing through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?
The strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and is vital for global energy supplies. Any disruption to shipping traffic there can send oil prices soaring and affect economies worldwide.
CNN reported that Iran’s actions during the recent conflict convinced US intelligence officials that Tehran is now more willing, and more capable, of using the strait as a strategic weapon during future confrontations.
“We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait, a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” one source familiar with the intelligence assessments told the news outlet.
Also Read: Ship-to-ship transfer, two locations, armed drones: How US smuggled 90 million barrels of oil using Iran’s technique
The report said Iran still possesses a substantial stockpile of missiles, drones, fast attack boats and mine-laying capabilities that could be used to harass or block commercial shipping.
Could Iran close the strait again?
US officials reportedly believe Iran may now be more likely to attempt similar actions in the future because it managed to disrupt maritime traffic and target Gulf energy infrastructure without exhausting major military resources.
According to CNN, intelligence agencies are reassessing how Iran could use the same tactics again if tensions with the United States or its allies escalate.
The report also noted concerns that Iran could pressure the Houthis in Yemen to target another key shipping route, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, if diplomatic efforts collapse. One source claimed that shutting both waterways simultaneously would “completely blow up the global economy.”
Also Read: Inflation, gas prices and interest rates: 3 key ways US-Iran peace deal could impact global economy
Trump administration pushes for reopening deal
President Donald Trump said Monday that the Strait of Hormuz was already “partially opened” and claimed it would fully reopen Friday under a new framework agreement between the US and Iran.
“They’re doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they’ve already found, but … ships are starting to go out now,” Trump said during the G7 summit alongside French President Emmanuel Macron.
Vice President JD Vance also suggested Iran agreed to negotiations because it recognized it was “losing that leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.”