ANALYSIS: What Will Make Tinubu’s Re-Election in 2027 Certain By Kabir Akintayo
In the final months of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, a popular refrain echoed across Nigeria’s streets, markets and social media spaces: “No government can be worse than this.”
For millions of Nigerians, the statement reflected accumulated frustration. Fuel scarcity had become routine. The controversial Naira redesign policy triggered an unprecedented cash crisis. Citizens queued endlessly at banks and ATMs, often unable to access their own money. The economy was struggling, inflation was rising, and insecurity remained a national concern.
Three years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office on the platform of his “Renewed Hope” agenda, many Nigerians are asking a question that would have seemed improbable in 2023: Has life become better, or has the country merely exchanged one set of hardships for another? The answer depends on where one stands.
To be fair, Buhari’s administration was not without achievements. His government expanded rail infrastructure, completed the Second Niger Bridge, invested heavily in road construction, introduced the Anchor Borrowers Programme to support agricultural production, and implemented one of the largest social intervention schemes in the country, these are Home Grown School Feeding Programmes (GSFP), Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP), N-Power, National Social Safety Net Programme (NASSCO), and the National Cash Transfer Programme (N-CTP) otherwise called ‘Trader Moni’.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Nigeria avoided the catastrophic health outcomes many experts feared. Emergency relief programmes, cash transfers and economic stimulus packages helped cushion some vulnerable households, while the administration’s public health response earned international recognition in certain quarters.
Yet these achievements were ultimately overshadowed by economic hardship, insecurity and declining public confidence.
When Tinubu emerged as Buhari’s successor, he campaigned on a promise that sounded familiar to Nigerians who had previously embraced Goodluck Jonathan’s transformation agenda and Buhari’s “Change” mantra.
The slogan was “Renewed Hope.” The promise was simple: economic recovery, job creation, improved security, stable electricity, local government autonomy, a stronger Naira and a more prosperous Nigeria.
Three years later, the verdict remains deeply contested. There is no doubt that Tinubu has undertaken some of the most consequential reforms in Nigeria’s democratic history. On his inauguration day, he announced the removal of fuel subsidy—a policy successive governments had promised but lacked the political courage to implement.
His administration unified the foreign exchange market, pursued fiscal reforms, increased federal allocations to states through improved revenue generation, and signed into law a new national minimum wage that raised workers’ pay from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000 after intense negotiations with organised labour.
The administration also pushed for local government autonomy following a landmark Supreme Court ruling and launched the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), arguably one of its most visible and popular social programmes. For thousands of students who previously struggled to finance tertiary education, the loan scheme has become a lifeline.
Road infrastructure projects have continued across the country. Major highways, including sections of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway initiative and several federal road rehabilitation projects, have received significant government attention. On paper, these are substantial achievements. But governance is often judged less by policy announcements and more by lived reality. And for many Nigerians, daily life remains difficult.
The economic reforms that international financial institutions applauded have imposed severe short-term pain on citizens. The removal of fuel subsidy triggered an immediate increase in transportation costs. Petrol prices rose from below ₦200 per litre in 2023 to almost N1500 in 2026. It levels that many households still struggle to absorb. Cooking gas prices have also increased significantly. The result is visible across major cities.
Private vehicle owners have increasingly turned to commercial ride-hailing services or informal transport businesses to supplement income. Transport operators compete for fewer passengers whose purchasing power has been eroded by inflation.
Food prices have soared. Rent has become unaffordable for many urban residents. The middle class continues to shrink.The administration argues that these sacrifices are necessary to rebuild the economy and prevent fiscal collapse. However, many citizens question why the burden appears concentrated on ordinary Nigerians while the benefits remain largely invisible.
The security situation presents an even more troubling challenge. One of Tinubu’s major campaign promises was to secure lives and property. During the 2023 election campaign, the APC manifesto pledged to deploy technology, intelligence gathering and institutional reforms to tackle insecurity. Yet incidents of kidnapping, banditry and violent attacks continue to dominate national headlines.
Recently, Oyo schoolchildren, including the principal and teachers of the community school were abducted in the South Western part of the country. The North-West and North-Central regions continue to experience attacks from armed groups. High-profile kidnappings involving prominent citizens, traditional rulers and security personnel have reinforced public anxiety. While the government frequently announces military successes and neutralisation of criminal elements, many Nigerians judge security through a simpler measure: whether they feel safer today than they did yesterday. For a significant number, the answer remains uncertain.
Electricity is another area where public expectations have collided with reality.The government claimed to have inherited an average generation baseline of about 4,000 MW and has since pushed the grid’s peak generation to hover around 5,800 to 6,000 MW. But the reality says otherwise. With the often collapsed of the national grid, and despite reforms within the power sector, the introduction of tariff classifications such as Band A, B and C, power supply remains inconsistent across much of the country.
Businesses continue to rely heavily on generators. Households face rising estimated electricity bills without provision of prepaid meters as promised. The promise of stable power, one of Nigeria’s longest-running political pledges remains elusive.
Then there is the issue of taxation. The administration’s proposed tax reforms generated heated debate among stakeholders, businesses and state governments. The government argue that Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains among the lowest in the world and that reforms are necessary to increase government revenue.
But, not additional tax burdens on citizens already struggling with inflation and declining purchasing power.
Whether by design or political calculation, the implementation of some contentious provisions has been approached cautiously as the country inches closer to the 2027 election cycle.
The government understands a fundamental political reality; economic pain can be tolerated temporarily, but additional burdens imposed too close to an election can become politically explosive.
Ordinarily, these challenges should create a fertile environment for a strong opposition movement, yet the opposition appears trapped in its own contradictions.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC), which initially generated excitement as a coalition platform capable of challenging the ruling APC, is increasingly consumed by internal disputes.
Leading aspirants including former River state governor Rotimi Amaechi, and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, who already exit the ADC, have openly expressed concerns about internal processes. The recent presidential primary conducted by the party broke the back of the Camel. There were series of accusations of marginalization, manipulation, rigging to Favour the former vice president Atiku Abubakar as the winner of the primary.
More significantly, opposition parties have failed to resolve a fundamental strategic dilemma.
If 2027 becomes another contest defined by regional calculations, southern aspirants may split votes that could otherwise be consolidated behind a single opposition candidate such as Peter Obi who is contesting under the National Democratic Party (NDC).
The absence of a unified opposition front contrasts sharply with the events preceding the 2015 election. That year, opposition leaders subordinated personal ambitions to a collective objective. The merger that produced the APC united diverse political interests under one platform and ultimately defeated an incumbent president.
Today, no comparable coalition appears firmly in place. Meanwhile, the APC remains remarkably cohesive. The party controls the presidency, enjoys support from a majority of governors, commands substantial influence in the National Assembly and continues to attract defections from rival parties.
Politically, Tinubu has demonstrated the same organisational capacity that earned him a reputation as one of Nigeria’s most formidable political strategists.
This contrast between governance and politics may ultimately define the 2027 election.
In governance, the administration faces legitimate criticism over inflation, insecurity, declining living standards and the slow pace of human development outcomes.
In politics, however, the ruling party remains firmly ahead of its competitors. That is the paradox confronting Nigerians today.
Many citizens are dissatisfied with current conditions. Yet dissatisfaction alone does not remove an incumbent government. Elections are won not merely by exposing failures but by presenting a credible alternative. At the moment, that alternative remains fragmented.
And therein lies Tinubu’s greatest advantage. The president’s path to re-election may not depend entirely on the strength of his government’s performance. It may depend just as much on the weakness of those seeking to replace him.
For many Nigerians hoping for change, that reality is perhaps the most uncomfortable conclusion of all. The country finds itself in a position where citizens may have reservations about the direction of governance, yet struggle to identify a united opposition capable of offering a convincing alternative.
Consequently, despite widespread economic hardship and persistent security concerns, President Tinubu enters the race toward 2027 with a political machine that remains formidable and an opposition that remains divided.
In a democracy, performance matters.
But in politics, organisation often matters more. And as things stand today, Tinubu’s greatest asset may not be the success of Renewed Hope. It may simply be the absence of a stronger hope on the other side.
Kabir Akintayo is a Political Journalist. He Writes from Abuja, And can be reached Via: [email protected]