The US and Iran showed little sign of breaking their impasse and agreeing to another round of peace talks, with President Donald Trump examining options for new strikes on Tehran ahead of a deadline to seek Congressional approval to extend the conflict.
Trump told Axios the blockade of Iran’s ports is “somewhat more effective than the bombing” and “choking” the country by restricting its oil exports.
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At the same time, US military commanders are set to brief Trump on new plans for Iran, Axios reported, citing unnamed sources. Centcom, which oversees US forces in the Middle East, has prepared a plan for a short wave of strikes on Iran to break the negotiating deadlock, Axios said.
Brent oil rose to a wartime high as traders factor in an even longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a potential breakdown of the US and Iran’s shaky ceasefire, which has been in place since around April 7. Brent surged as much as 7.1% to more than $126 a barrel on Thursday, before paring gains to $121.40.
“Trump wants to end the Iran war, but not on the terms proposed by Tehran,” said Becca Wasser and Chris Kennedy, analysts at Bloomberg Economics. “That suggests the question is no longer whether he escalates to push for a better offer, but when and how. We think the most likely window for action is within the next two weeks, and that renewed US strikes are the most likely course.”
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Iran has said it won’t reopen the strait to commercial vessels until the US lifts its blockade. It’s unclear how long Iran has left before it runs out of oil storage and is forced to cut production.
Just a single Iran-linked fuel tanker was observed entering the Persian Gulf on Thursday morning, with no exits for the day recorded so far, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That follows just three outbound and two inbound transits of dry cargo ships on Wednesday, most of which have ties to Tehran.
Signs of strain on the Iranian economy have emerged in recent days, with the currency weakening to a fresh low.
Trump on Wednesday told reporters that talks are continuing “telephonically” between the two sides after an abortive effort to meet in Pakistan over the weekend.
Any US attack on Iran, even if limited, will usher in “long and painful strikes” on US regional positions, a senior Revolutionary Guards official said.
“We’ve seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships,” Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted by Iranian media as saying.
Trump faces a deadline on Friday to end the Iran war or make the case to Congress for extending it, but the date is most likely to pass without altering the course of the conflict.
Analysts and congressional aides said they expect Trump to either notify Congress that he plans a 30-day extension or disregard the deadline, with his administration arguing that a current ceasefire with Tehran marked an end to the conflict. The White House has not said how it plans to proceed, or if it will ask Congress to approve an Authorization for the Use of Military Force against Iran.
The Iran conflict began on February 28 (EST), when Israel and the United States began airstrikes on Iran. Trump formally notified Congress of the conflict 48 hours later, as the law requires, starting the 60-day deadline clock that ends May 1.