Can Donald Trump reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

On May 3rd Mr Trump said that America would help guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that has been mostly blocked since almost the start of the war. An average of just seven ships per day transited in the seven-day period until May 1st—unchanged from the week leading up to the ceasefire. What he called “Project Freedom” was due to begin on May 4th. The Pentagon says it has destroyers, warplanes and 15,000 troops ready to aid mariners.

In background briefings to reporters, however, the Trump administration admits it does not plan to provide naval escorts. Instead it will co-ordinate with vessels, advising them on the best route to avoid the mines Iran is thought to have laid in the strait, and perhaps stand ready to assist should they be attacked. In effect, America seems to be daring Iran to strike.

There are thus two reasons to think the scheme will have only a small effect on shipping. The first is that Iran also gets a say—and if it says the strait is still closed, most sailors will continue to avoid it, no matter how many American warships are nearby. Less than an hour before Mr Trump’s announcement, a tanker was reportedly struck off the coast of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. The details were not immediately clear, but Iran was almost certainly behind the attack.

The second problem is that, in Mr Trump’s telling, America’s maritime mission will focus on stranded ships that want to sail eastwards out of the Persian Gulf. That is logical enough: few want to risk travelling in the other direction, lest they wind up stuck. But it is another reminder that the flow of oil, gas and other commodities will not return to normal until the war ends for good. Oil markets were suitably unimpressed by Mr Trump’s latest promise. The price of Brent crude for delivery in July rose to $110 a barrel on Monday, up by more than 1% from Friday’s close.

A gallon of petrol now costs an average of $4.46 in America, up by 8% from just one week ago. Some analysts think it could reach $5 by the time Americans hit the road for the Memorial Day holiday on May 25th, near an all-time high in nominal terms. Mr Trump’s disapproval rating has reached record highs. Three-quarters of Americans are unhappy with his handling of the economy. Democrats are trying to invoke the War Powers Act, a 1973 law that sets a 60-day limit on military operations that lack congressional approval. The president insists the ceasefire has stopped that clock—never mind that American warships continue to impose a blockade on Iran, which is undeniably an act of war.

Nor has the blockade been as successful as Mr Trump predicted on April 26th, when he said that Iran’s backed-up oil facilities would “explode” within three days. Still, Iran has been forced to trim output. It is stashing crude wherever it can, from jury-rigged containers onshore to derelict tankers pressed back into service as floating storage. Kpler, a data firm, estimated on April 30th that Iran had as little as 12 days of storage left at normal export volumes, and that production could fall by more than 50% by mid-May. Last week the Iranian rial hit a record low against the dollar.

Yet the mutual pain has not compelled either side to make notable concessions. Though American and Iranian representatives have not met in person since the first, inconclusive round of talks that began in Islamabad on April 11th, they continue to exchange messages via intermediaries. In some ways Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal, delivered last week, shows a hint of flexibility. It had previously refused to negotiate until America lifted its blockade of Iranian ports, a demand which scuppered efforts to organise a second round of talks in Islamabad around April 25th.

It now seems willing to talk without preconditions. Instead it has proposed a two-stage negotiation, with the suggestion that each phase lasts a month. The first would focus on reopening Hormuz. The second would revolve around Iran’s nuclear programme and its demand for sanctions relief. Iran is willing to discuss a prolonged moratorium on enriching uranium, but not to forswear it entirely; it also refuses to dismantle any of its nuclear facilities.

On May 1st Mr Trump said he was “not satisfied” with the proposal (although the next day he said that he would “soon be reviewing” it). A deal to end the war and reopen the strait might help bring down energy prices, which would ease his most pressing political problem. But it would also strip America of leverage going into the nuclear negotiations, which could easily drag beyond a month.

Unless those talks succeed, the war would end with Iran still in control of more than 400kg of uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade. The president has claimed repeatedly that Iran has agreed to hand over what he calls its “nuclear dust”. Even some of his remaining supporters would object to a deal that leaves it in Iran indefinitely.

Meanwhile, the threat of renewed conflict remains real. America still has three aircraft-carriers deployed in the region. Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of America’s Central Command, made a weekend visit to the USS Tripoli, an amphibious-assault ship that deployed to the Arabian Sea in March. With the strait blocked and the economic damage mounting, the ennui cannot last forever.