The politics of Zamfara state has, in recent times, advanced right into a theatre of contradictions, the place sabotage and technique, betrayal and reconciliation, failure and fleeting success all coexist in uneasy steadiness. But, beneath all of the intrigue lies a extra troubling fixed: a cussed sample of political actors repeating the identical pricey errors, whereas by some means anticipating a unique final result.
It’s this cycle, predictable, avoidable, but relentlessly recurring, that now casts an extended shadow over the unfolding permutations forward of 2027. And on the centre of this unfolding drama is the incumbent governor, Dauda Lawal Dare, whose current political strikes has compelled political observers to ask a basic query: is he strolling straight into the identical lure that consumed his predecessors?
To correctly situate the current, one should revisit the defining second that altered the political trajectory of Zamfara state through the 2019 electoral disaster. On the time, Abdul’aziz Abubakar Yari, then governor of the state, was rounding off his second tenure and, in typical style, had anointed a successor throughout the ranks of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Nonetheless, what ought to have been a routine succession plan quickly unraveled right into a authorized and political disaster.
The APC in Zamfara didn’t conduct legitimate main elections, a foundational requirement underneath Nigeria’s electoral legal guidelines. This failure was not merely procedural; it turned out to be deadly for the social gathering. It is because, aggrieved social gathering members, led by Kabiru Garba Marafa, approached the courts, difficult the legitimacy of the method.
The matter escalated by means of the judicial hierarchy till it reached its climax on the Supreme Court docket. On Could 24, 2019, in a landmark judgment delivered by a panel of justices led by Ibrahim Tanko Muhammad (then Performing CJN) the apex courtroom dominated that the APC had certainly didn’t conduct legitimate primaries in Zamfara state. Consequently, all votes solid for the social gathering within the normal elections have been declared wasted votes.
The implication was unprecedented. Regardless of successful overwhelmingly on the polls, the APC misplaced all elective positions within the state by means of judicial pronouncement. The courtroom ordered that candidates of the Peoples Democratic Occasion (PDP), who got here second within the elections, be declared winners. Thus, Bello Muhammad Matawalle emerged governor, not by means of the poll within the standard sense, however by means of the pressure of legislation.
After the injury had been completed, a twist of irony noticed the identical dramatis personae whose actions led to the APC’s downfall reuniting underneath its banner. Abdul’aziz Abubakar Yari, whose missteps value the social gathering dearly, and Kabiru Garba Marafa, whose insistence on justice triggered the authorized avalanche, each reunited within the APC fold. Much more curious was the choice of Matawalle, whose governorship was gifted by the PDP platform, to defect to the APC.
That singular resolution by Matawalle stays one of the crucial consequential political miscalculations within the current historical past of Zamfara state. Having benefited from a unprecedented judicial intervention, one would have anticipated a measure of political prudence, if not loyalty. As a substitute, Matawalle gambled on the APC, maybe satisfied that incumbency, coupled with federal alignment, would safe his re-election.
What adopted was predictable. The APC in Zamfara was something however a united home. It was a congregation of rival tendencies, competing pursuits, and unresolved grievances. The inner contradictions have been by no means absolutely addressed, even because the 2023 elections approached. Matawalle, regardless of serving because the North-west coordinator for the presidential marketing campaign of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, discovered himself politically weak at house.
The end result was decisive. In 2023, Dauda Lawal Dare of the PDP defeated an incumbent governor, a uncommon feat in Nigeria’s politics. His victory was extensively interpreted as a triumph of fashionable will over entrenched political equipment. It was, in some ways, a repudiation of the conceitedness of energy and a reminder that the voters, when sufficiently mobilised, can upend even probably the most formidable buildings.
One would assume that such a political trajectory would instill in its beneficiary a deep respect for the very forces that made it attainable—the individuals and, if one should add, windfall. However politics, particularly in Zamfara, has a means of bending logic.
Right now, there are rising indications that Dauda Lawal Dare could also be drifting into the identical mindset that led to the autumn of Matawalle. His defection to the APC recommend that he believes his re-election prospects is perhaps higher secured by means of political realignments, notably with parts throughout the APC. And this raises extra questions than solutions.
For political neutrals, that is, at greatest, a dangerous gamble. At worst, it’s a full misreading of the political temper. The APC that Dauda defeated in 2023 was not essentially weaker in construction; it was weaker in cohesion and credibility. Aligning with fragments of that very same construction doesn’t routinely translate into political benefit. If something, it dangers alienating the individuals of Zamfara who propelled him to energy.
In the meantime, the opposition panorama is quietly reshaping itself. Kabiru Garba Marafa, a central determine within the political evolution of Zamfara state, has exited the APC and located a brand new political house within the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This transfer, on the floor, could also be dismissed with the conceitedness that usually path such choices. However within the context of the fluid political atmosphere of Zamfara state, it carries important implications, particularly for Dauda whose political energy, the individuals seem like shifting their help.
Marafa isn’t new to political battles fought from the margins. His 2019 authorized problem in opposition to the APC institution demonstrated each resilience and strategic depth. Ought to he select to place himself in its place pressure in 2027, he could be doing so underneath situations not solely dissimilar to those who favoured Dauda in 2023.
The individuals of Zamfara, having skilled each the APC and the PDP in speedy succession, might be within the temper for one more experiment. There’s a rising sense of fatigue, a sense that neither of the dominant events has absolutely delivered on its guarantees. In such an atmosphere, a “third pressure” narrative, as is being craftily articulated by Marafa, can acquire traction.
That is the place the hazard lies for the incumbent. Elections in Zamfara are more and more much less about social gathering labels and extra about notion, momentum, and reference to the grassroots. The “lone wolf” phenomenon, the place a candidate positions himself as an outsider difficult a flawed institution, has confirmed efficient earlier than. It might very effectively repeat itself.
And that brings us again to the central query: is Dauda Lawal Dare caught within the bubble of previous errors? Whether or not one needs to acknowledge it or not, there may be an eerie resemblance between the present trajectory and the missteps of the previous: the tendency to overestimate the worth of elite alliances whereas underestimating the facility of individuals’s will or grassroots sentiment; the inclination to imagine that political survival is greatest secured by means of backroom preparations quite than public belief; the quiet drift from the very ideas that after impressed electoral victory. Zamfara has seen this script earlier than. It not often ends effectively.
Dauda’s resolution to comply with within the footsteps can greatest be described by the favored quote: madness is doing the identical factor repeatedly and anticipating totally different outcomes. Zamfara immediately dangers changing into a residing case examine of that precept. And, as 2027 approaches, the state stands as soon as once more at a crossroads. The alternatives made by its leaders, particularly the incumbent, will decide whether or not it breaks free from its cycle of political déjà vu or sinks deeper into it.
For now, one factor is obvious: Kabiru Garba Marafa and the ADC seem like positioning themselves as credible different, tapping right into a rising undercurrent of dissatisfaction. And in a spot like Zamfara, the place political tides can shift with outstanding velocity, that could be all that’s wanted to stage one more upset.
Whether or not Dauda recognises the warning indicators, or chooses to disregard them, is a query solely time can reply. But when historical past is something to go by, Zamfara isn’t forgiving of those that fail to be taught from it.