Nigeria Exports Practically Half Of Gasoline Output Whereas Home Home Shortages Deepen Energy Disaster
Nigeria exported a mean of 45.8 per cent of its utilised fuel in January and February 2026, at the same time as home fuel provide to tens of its thermal energy crops weakened sharply, worsening electrical energy shortages throughout the nation.
In line with a THISDAY evaluation of knowledge from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Fee (NUPRC) for each months, it implied that Nigeria, which for no less than two months has skilled severe energy cuts, has been unable to persuade fuel producers to stick to the Nigeria’s Home Gasoline Supply Obligation (DGDO).
The DGDO is a regulatory framework designed to make sure that a portion of fuel produced within the nation is mandatorily equipped to the home market.
Enforced by the NUPRC beneath the provisions of the Petroleum Business Act (PIA) 2021, the DGDO requires each fuel producer to prioritise home provide earlier than exporting fuel, significantly to sectors labeled as vital, together with energy technology firms, gas-based industries, and different strategic customers.
In distinction, the upstream sector elevated its deliveries to fulfill this obligation final yr, delivering 77 per cent of its DGDO as of July 2025, the NUPRC introduced on the time.
Minister of Energy, Adebayo Adelabu, final week attributed the prioritisation of export by the fuel producers to the profitable nature of export gross sales, low government-regulated value of fuel to the ability sector in addition to the non-payment of current money owed owed the Gasoline Corporations (Gascos) by the federal authorities.
In essence, whereas the DGDO is meant to ensure power safety by ring-fencing fuel for native use, structural and industrial realities have meant that compliance doesn’t all the time translate into enough or dependable provide on the bottom.
However an in depth evaluate of the NUPRC knowledge indicated a sustained export bias in fuel allocation. In January, exports stood at 97,896.41 million customary cubic ft (MMSCF), accounting for 45.3 per cent of whole utilised fuel of 216,344.48 MMSCF. In February, exports had been 91,740.87 MMSCF, representing an excellent increased 46.3 per cent of utilised volumes of 198,398.67 MMSCF.
Mixed, Nigeria exported 189,637.28 MMSCF inside the two-month interval, sustaining sturdy exterior provide commitments regardless of a decline in total production and tightening home availability.
Moreover, whole fuel production fell from 233,961.47 MMSCF in January to 212,615.22 MMSCF in February, marking a 9.1 per cent drop. The decline mirrored reductions in each related and non-associated fuel output, with the latter recording a sharper contraction, pointing to broader upstream provide challenges.
Regardless of this, total fuel utilisation remained excessive, enhancing barely from 92.5 per cent in January to 93.3 per cent in February and suggesting that a lot of the fuel produced was successfully captured and deployed, though the sample of utilisation revealed a structural tilt towards exports.
Home fuel provide recorded a major decline over the interval as native gross sales dropped from 62,944.93 MMSCF in January to 52,300.45 MMSCF in February, representing a 16.9 per cent lower. As a proportion of utilised fuel, home provide fell from 29.1 per cent to 26.4 per cent, indicating lowered availability for native consumption, together with energy technology.
In the identical vein, fuel consumed as area use remained substantial, with volumes standing at 55,503.14 MMSCF in January and 54,357.34 MMSCF in February, translating to 25.7 per cent and 27.4 per cent of utilised fuel respectively, additional tightening provide to native end-users.
Losses inside the system, although average, remained vital. Gasoline flaring declined from 17,166.08 MMSCF in January, representing 7.34 per cent of whole production, to 14,085.55 MMSCF or 6.62 per cent in February, a 17.9 per cent discount. Whereas this indicated some enchancment, the volumes remained substantial within the context of home shortages.
However fuel shrinkage, that are volumes misplaced throughout processing and transportation, additionally dropped sharply from 450.91 MMSCF in January to 131.00 MMSCF in February, suggesting improved operational effectivity in dealing with and transmission.
Taken collectively, the info confirmed that out of whole production of 446,576.69 MMSCF over the 2 months, a good portion was both exported, consumed in area operations, or misplaced to flaring and shrinkage, leaving a relatively smaller share for the home market.
The implications for Nigeria’s energy sector have been extreme over the previous two months, because the nation has skilled persistent electrical energy shortages, largely attributed to insufficient fuel provide to thermal energy crops, which account for over 75 per cent of put in technology capability.
With home fuel provide falling inside the interval and its share of utilisation dropping to only over 1 / 4, energy technology firms have confronted rising issue securing satisfactory feedstock, leading to lowered output and grid instability.
In line with the evaluation, whereas practically 46 per cent of utilised fuel was exported on common, solely about 27 per cent was equipped to the home market, particularly when mixed with the numerous share absorbed by area use and ongoing flaring, thereby highlighting a widening disconnect between upstream fuel allocation and downstream power wants.
An additional evaluate indicated that the imbalances in Nigeria’s gas-to-power challenges should not solely a perform of production shortfalls, but in addition of allocation priorities, infrastructure limitations, and industrial preparations that favour export markets.
Whereas Nigeria’s put in technology capability exceeds 13GW on paper, the nation usually transmits and distributes lower than 5GW in apply, that means greater than half of potential provide is stranded at any given time.
Emmanuel Addeh
Times Nigeria