Decrease Offshore Lome Costs, Stronger Naira Minimize Petrol Imports As Dangote Boosts Native Provide
Native and worldwide petroleum advertising and marketing analysts have attributed the drop in petrol imports into Nigeria to decrease Ship-to-Ship (STS) costs offshore in Lomé and a stronger naira.
That is simply because the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has efficiently elevated its day by day home provide of petrol from a baseline of 32 million litres in December 2025 to a file 40.1 million litres in February 2026, the most recent information from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has proven.
In its newest evaluation, Platts, part of S&P World Vitality, mentioned market costs for petrol traded within the Offshore Lome hub have weakened up to now in 2026, whereas a strengthening naira improved incentives for patrons in Nigeria.
Its information, nonetheless, confirmed {that a} lack of Nigerian import permits has saved some volumes trapped offshore.
Platts assessed the day by day STS Lome worth at $669 per metric tonne (mt) as of February 12, 2026, including that the common Platts STS Lome worth from January 1 to February 12 was $647.75/mt.
This compares with $688.50/mt for the common of November to December 2025.
“Assuming a product density of 0.745 kg/l and utilizing the Central {Bank} of Nigeria’s February 12 Naira/US greenback settlement, the market worth in Lome on February 12 was Naira 675/litre.
“Factoring in prices from Lome into Lagos utilizing prices for freight and discharge, the into-tank worth in Lagos for gasoline (petrol) has averaged Naira 722.08/litre over the 30 days ending February 10, in keeping with calculations by the Main Vitality Entrepreneurs Affiliation of Nigeria, utilizing Platts Lome costs,” Platts defined.
Chief Govt Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, who concurred with Platts’ evaluation, mentioned a stronger naira introduced parity to Dangote Refinery and depot homeowners’ costs.
He defined that almost all personal depots sourced their merchandise from Lomé by means of the STS transaction mannequin, which helped decrease costs in contrast with direct imports from Europe and different worldwide markets.
“So, when these vessels come to Lome, they go together with their ships, they usually do these transactions. And due to a stronger Naira recently, importers have been in a position to compete with Dangote Refinery.
“In case you have a look at final week, earlier than Dangote Refinery dropped its diesel worth from N910 to N880, the personal depot was promoting at a a lot lower cost than Dangote Refinery. They have been promoting the N900, however Dangote determined to decrease the worth to N880. So, they’ve been competing recently. One main issue is the sturdy Naira we’ve seen recently. And that’s the reason they’ve been in a position to compete with Dangote,” Olatide mentioned.
He additionally attributed the drop in imports to fewer licenses granted by the regulator, NMDPRA, noting that import licenses have been a recurring situation within the first quarter of this 12 months.
He mentioned the regulatory company was attempting to assist native refineries, Dangote Refinery, and different modular refineries by limiting the variety of import licenses.
He recommended the regulator for taking that place, noting that as Dangote and others continued to provide and promote domestically, it will assist increase the economic system.
NMDPRA disclosed that Dangote provided about 40 million litres of petrol in January, greater than its December provide.
In response to Olatide, production output has additionally helped stabilise the naira.
He mentioned that with the delay of the import license for this 12 months, importation will proceed to drop for the good thing about the naira and the bigger economic system, including that it’s going to assist Dangote Refinery to proceed to stabilise.
Olatide famous that 60-70 per cent of the product used domestically in December and January was sourced from Dangote.
He additional mentioned, “In case you have a look at it, the naira has carried out higher within the final one or two months. And it signifies that importers should not chasing FX. So, it has helped the naira. It has contributed to the naira’s power.
“So, what the regulator is is how you can preserve encouraging Dangote Refinery to proceed at that tempo, at that 60-70 per cent native provide. If it continues at that stage, the naira will proceed to strengthen. But when they permit import permits, grant them as a lot as doable, and preserve importing, there might be stress on the naira as a result of they need to supply FX to get these merchandise from Lomé.
In the meantime, Dangote Petroleum Refinery has efficiently elevated its day by day home provide of petrol from a baseline of 32 million litres in December 2025 to a file 40.1 million litres in February 2026.
This 25.3 per cent development in production marked a essential milestone for the power, because it scales as much as meet the vitality wants of over 200 million Nigerians and raises hopes for long-term worth stability and nationwide vitality safety.
The addition of an additional 8.1 million litres of petrol to the day by day market in only one month got here amid delays by the midstream and downstream regulator within the issuance of import permits for oil entrepreneurs.
An evaluation of the NMDPRA report indicated that the Dangote Refinery has considerably narrowed the hole between what the nation produces and what it consumes, with present information suggesting Nigeria’s common day by day petrol consumption is roughly 60.2 million litres.
With the refinery now pumping out over 40.1 million litres each single day, the power, the one purposeful petrol refinery in Nigeria, now provides about two-thirds of the nation’s gas necessities domestically.
In response to the actual fact sheet, in January 2025, the Dangote Refinery provided 19.1 million litres per day; 24.8 million litres per day in February; 22.9 million litres per day in March; 21.5 million litres per day in April; 18.5 million litres per day in Could; and 18.1 million litres per day in June.
As well as, home provide from the refinery in July was 16.5 million litres; 19.8 million litres in August; 17.6 million litres in September; 17.1 million litres in October; 19.5 million litres in November, and 32 million litres per day in December.
Through the interval into consideration, the power recorded a capability utilisation fee of about 61.27 per cent, in keeping with the NMDPRA. However throughout the week, the refinery maintained it may provide the complete 75 million litres if given the go-ahead.
Additionally, petrol provide slumped from 74.2 million litres per day in December 2025 to 63 million litres in January 2026, ostensibly because of the ebbing stress of the festive interval, whilst day by day consumption lowered from 63.7 million litres day by day in December to 60.2 million litres in January this 12 months.
Emmanuel Addeh, Peter Uzoho
Times Nigeria